Gold News

Gold Eases from Record High as Analysts Argue Over "Speculative" vs. "Fundamental" Action; G20 Set to Extend Monetary Stimulus

The Gold Price rose yet again early Thursday, hitting fresh 18-month highs for the second day running during Asian trade, as world equities gained 0.8% to new 2009 highs.

Government bonds slipped back. Crude oil held above $72 per barrel.

Gold priced in Pounds Sterling touched a 4-month high at £620 an ounce.

"Yesterday's higher-than-expected US consumer-price inflation numbers spurred further Gold Investment demand," reckons Stefan Graber at Credit Suisse in Singapore.

"The move above $1,000 is being warranted by fundamentals."

Thursday morning saw the Bank of Japan hold its key lending rate at 0.1%, and the Swiss
National Bank was expected to stick at 0.25% at its policy vote.

Documents leaked to Reuters said the European Union will urge continued
monetary and fiscal stimulus at next week's G20 meeting of world
leaders in Pittsburgh.

"Efforts must be maintained until recovery is secured," the documents say.

In the US, trade magazine Inside Mortgage Finance reports that over four-in-five of all new home-loans "benefited from some form of government support" in 2009 to date.

Over in the physical gold market however – which usually sees strong post-harvest buying across India in Sept. and Oct. –"There's no Asian demand at all because of higher prices," counters Kate Harada at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo.

"The current rally in precious metals is purely speculative and technically driven."

Outstanding volumes of US Gold Futures show a further 5% jump across the week-ending last night, adding to last week's near-record 17% rise in the number of Comex contracts now open.

Despite a small upturn in gold imports to India, however – the world's No.1 consumer market – "Demand is dull and no one is committing to buy with prices nearing these peaks," said one Mumbai dealer to Reuters this morning.

"The overall appetite [for gold] has been hit." (Is Gold in a Bubble? Read more...)

Next month's Diwali festival will mark the peak of India's annual gold demand, and while "There is a demand for gold in the market, overall demand will be less by 30% during the forthcoming festive season," reckons Prithviraj Kothari, director at Riddhi Siddhi Bullions, speaking to the Economic Times on the sidelines of a conference earlier this week.

Back here in London's professional wholesale market on Thursday morning, Gold retreated from its early highs vs. the US Dollar to slip below last night's record closing high of $1,018 an ounce.

The US currency meanwhile sank to new 12-months on the forex market, falling through $1.4760 per Euro despite news of a faster-than-forecast contraction in European construction output.

Euro-strength capped the Gold Price for German, French and Italian savers below €695 an ounce, some 4.7% higher for Sept. so far.

"[Wednesday's] close above last week's high of $1,012 keeps the bullish momentum in place," says the latest technical analysis of Dollar prices from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta, "with short-term price target seen at the 2008 high of $1,032.

"Tough to pick a measured target [for this move] based on the triangle pennant, due to its width. Suggest 'pole' was $125 in length, so from the breakout level of $965 indicates measured target of $1,090.

"Only a close below $990 neutralizes the bullish outlook."

Longer-term, "We are forecasting an average gold price of $890 per ounce next year owing primarily to stronger economic growth and less investor interest in gold," says Caroline Bain, senior commodities editor at the Economist Intelligence Unit in London, speaking to ArabianBusiness.com.

Famously bearish on gold in the late 1990s and rarely commenting on its bull-market since, The Economist magazine said in Feb. this year that "Gold looks like a good each-way bet" just as it neared $1,000 an ounce.

"If equity and other commodity markets continue to rise strongly and inflationary pressures start to emerge," Bain adds, "Gold will be attractive as a hedge against inflation."

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Adrian Ash

Adrian Ash, BullionVault Gold News

Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the world-leading physical gold, silver and platinum market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and he has now been researching and writing daily analysis of precious metals and the wider financial markets for over 20 years. A frequent guest on BBC radio and television, Adrian is regularly quoted by the Financial Times, MarketWatch and many other respected news outlets, and his views from inside the bullion market have been sought by the Economist magazine, CNBC, Bloomberg, Germany's Handelsblatt and FAZ, plus Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore.

See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews.

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