We use cookies (including third-party cookies such as Google) to remember your site preferences and to help us understand how visitors use our sites so we can improve them. To learn more, please see our privacy policy and our cookie policy.

To agree to our use of cookies, click 'Accept' or choose 'Options' to set your preferences by cookie type.

Options Accept
BullionVault

CHARTS

  • English
  • Deutsch
  • Español
  • Français
  • Italiano
  • Polski
  • 日本語
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Daily audit
  • Help
  • Contact
  • Deposit
  • Login
  • Open account
  • ABOUT US
    • About BullionVault
    • In the press
    • Reviews
    BUY/SELL BULLION
    • Vaulted gold & silver
    • -Live order board
    • -Daily Price
    • Coins for delivery (UK)
    INVESTMENT GUIDE
    • Guide to gold
    • -How to buy gold
    • -Gold investment
    • -Gold investment plan
    • -Investment insurance
    • -Compare asset performance
    • Guide to silver
    • -How to buy silver
    • Guide to platinum
    • -How to buy platinum
    GOLD NEWS
    • Gold news front page
    • -Gold price news
    • -Opinion & analysis
    • -Market fundamentals
    • -Gold/Silver Investor Index
    • -Infographics
    CHARTS
    • Gold price
    • Silver price
    • Platinum price
    • Price alerts
  • Login
  • Open account
  • BUY/SELL BULLION
  • Vaulted gold & silver
    • ⤷
    • Live order board
    • Daily Price
  • Coins for delivery (UK)
  • INVESTMENT GUIDE
  • Guide to gold
    • ⤷
    • How to buy gold
    • Gold investment
    • Gold investment plan
    • Investment insurance
    • Compare asset performance
  • Guide to silver
    • ⤷
    • How to buy silver
  • Guide to platinum
    • ⤷
    • How to buy platinum
  • GOLD NEWS
  • Gold news front page
    • ⤷
    • Gold price news
    • Opinion & analysis
    • Market fundamentals
    • Gold/Silver Investor Index
    • Infographics
  • CHARTS
  • Gold price
  • Silver price
  • Platinum price
  • Price alerts
  • ABOUT US
  • About BullionVault
  • In the press
  • Reviews
  • Help
  • Contact
  • Daily audit
    • English
    • Deutsch
    • Español
    • Français
    • Italiano
    • Polski
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文

Gold News

Live support

NEED HELP? ASK US NOW

Search form

Gold News front page

Gold Price News

Gold Prices Sink as 'Kill or Cure' Stimulus Spikes Real Interest Rates Fastest Since 2013

More...

Gold Investing In Depth

Learn about gold bullion bars

Learn about gold bullion coins (and costs)

Gold investment: Why & how?

Gold Investment Analysis

  • Latest Gold Investor Index
  • Diversification: Gold as investment insurance
  • 40-year Asset Performance Comparison Table

Gold Articles

Opinion & Analysis

Gold Price News

Investment News

Gold in History

Gold Books

Gold Investor Index

Gold Infographics

Archive

  • February 2021 (23)
  • January 2021 (25)
  • December 2020 (24)
  • November 2020 (23)
  • October 2020 (25)
More...

List of authors

Gold Bullion Near $1300 Two-Month Low as US Jobs Beat Forecast, Real Rates & China 'Key'

Wednesday, 8/31/2016 14:09
GOLD BULLION slid to 2-month lows near $1300 per ounce against a rising US Dollar in London trade Wednesday, on track for an August loss as US jobs data beat expectations.
 
Commodities retreated but global stock markets ticked higher while US Treasury bonds slipped, nudging yields higher, after new data ahead of Friday's official US jobs estimate said employers added 177,000 net jobs this month, just beating analysts' average forecasts but down from July's strong growth.
 
Betting in the futures market continued to put the odds of a US Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting 3 weeks from today at 1-in-4.
 
Heading for only its second monthly loss of 2016 to date, gold bullion on Wednesday morning recorded its lowest London benchmark since 28 June at $1314.45 per ounce, down some 2.1% from July's 3-year monthly closing high, before sliding towards $1300 per ounce.
 
That still put the metal some 23% above the end of 2015.
 
Chart of gold price in US Dollars per ounce, month-end London benchmark
 
"[The] neckline of the broad inverted head and shoulders at $1307/$1300 should be a key level," says the latest technical analysis of gold prices from French investment and bullion market-maker Societe Generale, pointing to the bullish chart pattern it saw in the metal's sharp recovery of early 2016.
 
"Gold hit its [6-year] low the day right after the Fed raised rates [end-2015]," says Martin Murenbeeld, chief economist for Dundee Economics, talking to Kitco News, "but since then, gold has been rising strongly."
 
Forecasting a "knee-jerk" but temporary sell-off in gold bullion if the US central bank does again raise rates any time soon, "For gold [the] important rate is what we call the real interest rate."
 
After accounting for inflation, real US interest rates have dropped sharply since the Fed's first and so far only rate hike of the last decade, made in December last year, with real 10-year US Treasury bond yields falling from 1.57% to 0.62% net of the official CPI inflation rate.
 
"Both the level of the US Dollar and US real rates reflect greater optimism about the US economy [than in 2011]," says a precious metals note from Australian financial services group Macquarie, meaning that gold's previous record highs "seem out of reach...though concern over both [the currency and economy] will provide a firm underpinning.
 
"Unusually, how much gold can go up by might finally depend on supply and demand 'fundamentals', and while likely to improve, they will do so only slowly."
 
"Overall, we think the Chinese gold market will continue to grow," says a new analysis of the No.1 mining and consuming nation from Canadian bank RBC's commodity strategist Christopher Louney, "but lower net demand and continued supply growth means that the shortfall should narrow this year," helping curb world prices until jewelry buying turns high next year.
 
Lower Chinese supply, rather than growing demand, explains why Shanghai prices have risen above global quotes but delivery volumes have fallen, says a note from specialist analysts Thomson Reuters GFMS.
 
"Delivery volumes on the SGE were down to 118 tonnes in July, the seventh consecutive monthly decline on an annual basis [yet] the premia to the LBMA Gold Price edged higher, averaging $5.50 per ounce in July from $3.77 a month earlier" and then rising to $5.60 as delivery volumes hit new 2016 lows.
 
Silver prices also retreated with gold bullion on Wednesday, but held just above Monday night's new 2-month low of $18.62 per ounce in spot trading.
  • Reddit logo
  • Facebook logo
  • Twitter logo
  • Google logo
  • Yahoo logo
  • LinkedIn logo
  • Digg logo
  • StumbleUpon logo
  • Technorati logo

Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the physical gold and silver market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and is now a regular contributor to many leading analysis sites including Forbes and a regular guest on BBC national and international radio and television news. Adrian's views on the gold market have been sought by the Financial Times and Economist magazine in London; CNBC, Bloomberg and TheStreet.com in New York; Germany's Der Stern; Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore, and many other respected finance publications.

See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews.

Please Note: All articles published here are to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. Please review our Terms & Conditions for accessing Gold News.

Follow Us

Facebook Youtube Twitter LinkedIn

 

Mobile apps

 - live trading 24/7

 - buy & sell instantly

 - up-to-the-second charts

 

 

 

Daily news email
Go to 'communications settings' 

Get the latest daily gold price news free by email

Latest gold news by email

 

 

 

Gold Investor Index
2 February 2021

Silver Investor Index

Record New Year 2021

 

 

 

LBMA webinar
21 January 2021

LBMA

London gold trading

 

 

 

Bloomberg TV
1 February 2021

Bloomberg TV

r/silver-surge

 

 

 

The Alchemist
1 December 2020

Newton

True Gold/Silver Ratio

 

 

 

  •  Email us

Market Fundamentals

  • Green Energy: Platinum Key to New 'Hydrogen Catapult'
  • 2021 Gold Price to Rise 11.5%: LBMA Forecast
  • 'Cut Bullion Duty to Cut Smuggling': India's Gold Industry
More...
  • Cost calculator
  • Cookies
  • Terms & conditions

©BullionVault Ltd 2005-

  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube

Save your cookie preferences

We use cookies to remember your site preferences, record your referrer and improve the performance of our site. For more information, see our cookie policy.

Please select an option below and 'Save' your preferences.

Save

You can update your cookie preferences at any time from the 'Cookies' link in the footer.

Secure auto-logout warning

You have not been active for some time.

For your security you will be logged out in   minutes unless you take action.