GOLD BULLION again tried to hold above $4000 per ounce on Friday, trimming its plunge from mid-October's fresh all-time high to 8.3% as major bank analysts slashed their gold price forecasts after rushing to predict $5000 and more at this month's highs.

Having said in June that gold's bull run was finished at $3500 per ounce, analysts at US financial giant Citi have now cut their 3-month gold price outlook from $4000 to $3800, albeit with "a push higher to $5000 per ounce next year."

Coming into 2025 with one of the least bullish gold price forecasts, international bank and London bullion clearer HSBC says gold will now trade between $3700 and $4050 to the end of this year, before re-testing this month's high near $4400 but dropping to $3800 by the end of 2026.

HSBC predicted in January that gold would average $2683 this year, below the bullion-market analysts' average forecast of $2735 and sharply below the outturn to date of $3291.

"Gold is digesting its gains," says Michael Lytle, chief investment officer at the wealth division of global brokerage StoneX, pointing to gold's 25% surge in the 6 weeks to mid-October's top of $4381 per ounce.

That move was then halved by the steepest drop in London bullion − the benchmark reference for gold prices worldwide − since gold's 2013 price crash.

Meantime in Asia today, gold prices fell back to a small discount versus London quotes in No.2 consumer India following the strongest stretch of wholesale premiums − signalling strong domestic demand over supply, and spurred by solid Diwali festival demand − since late 2020.

China's wholesale gold prices, in contrast, have moved back to a premium this week after plunging to signal poor demand at this fall's run of record highs.

Now falling for the second week running, London gold bullion priced in Dollars set a new record week-end level on six Fridays in a row to 17 October − the long such stretch since the summer 2011 peak, which then proved a 'big top' in gold for almost a decade. 

Short of fixing at London's 3pm auction below $3950 per ounce today, gold will have ended October with its 8th new record monthly close of the past 12 months.

That running 12-month figure peaked at 9 between last fall and this spring, the highest since summer 2011's all-time record of 10.