Gold News

Gold Price Tests 'H&S Neckline' at $1220, Slides to 3-Week Low on Pre-Easter 'Profit Taking'

GOLD PRICES slid 2.5% to 3-week lows at $1220 per ounce Wednesday morning as the Dollar rose on the FX market and world stock markets crept higher as Brussels police continued to hunt suspects in yesterday's deadly terrorist attacks.
 
Government bond prices retreated, and US crude oil lost 1.3% to drop towards $40 per barrel – a 7-year low when reached at the tail-end of 2015.
 
The Chinese Yuan also slipped further from its strongest Dollar value of 2016 to date, as the International Monetary Fund denied rumors of any "secret deal" between Washington and Beijing regarding FX rates at last month's G-20 summit of major economy finance ministers.
 
Gold priced in Yuan still fell 1.5% by the close of Wednesday's Chinese trade, but the premium offered to new imports from global hub London held at $1.70 per ounce – around 70% of the typical average. 
 
Gold trading volumes in Shanghai's main contract have so far doubled the daily average from 2015.
 
"There still seems to be some pressure on [gold] from the Comex April rolls," said Alex Thorndike at Swiss refining and finance group MKS's Asian desk overnight, pointing to how speculators wanting to extend their bullish bets in futures and options need to sell March and buy April contracts – pushing current prices down – together with "ongoing position squaring/trimming into the Easter holiday period.
 
"My guess is we will try back towards the $1225-30 major support zone in the lead up to Easter, but that area should hold."
 
"Short term," says the latest technical analysis from French investment bank Societe Generale, gold prices are "forming a probable [head and shoulders]" – a bullish chart pattern – "and a test of neckline at $1225/1220 looks likely.
 
"Graphical levels at $1190 will be important support."
 
Looking at Tuesday's brief rise in gold prices after the twin terror attacks in Belgian capital Brussels killed 31 and injured 260, "[that] move was really nothing more than a kneejerk reaction," says a trading note from London broker Marex Spectron's David Govett
 
"The gold market has pulled back sharply overnight...a perfectly understandable and somewhat overdue move as we see profit-taking and book-squaring ahead of Easter, the end of the month and the end of the first quarter."
 
Japanese trading firm Mitsui & Co. meantime said it will post its first ever annual loss in 69 years of business, writing down $2.3 billion on mineral projects worldwide.
 
Mitsui quit the precious metals market at late-2015's new 6-year price lows, resigning its role as a market maker in the London bullion market and benchmark price auctions.

Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the physical gold and silver market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and is now a regular contributor to many leading analysis sites including Forbes and a regular guest on BBC national and international radio and television news. Adrian's views on the gold market have been sought by the Financial Times and Economist magazine in London; CNBC, Bloomberg and TheStreet.com in New York; Germany's Der Stern; Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore, and many other respected finance publications.

See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews.

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