Gold News

Gold Closes New York Unchanged as US Housing Slump Hits Global Forecasts

From Chris Mullen at

Gold Prices
fell as low as $755.30 by late trade in Asia on Wednesday before rising in London to found nearly 1% gains at $764.15.

In New York, however, the Gold Market then fell back off into the close and ended with a loss of 0.03%.

Silver dropped to as low as $13.48 in Asia and rose to as high as $13.82 by midmorning in New York trade, but it also fell back off into the close, ending with a respectable gain of 0.89%.

Gold Priced in Euros
fell slightly under €533, platinum gained $24 to $1435 to a new record high, palladium gained $4 to $369, and copper fell nearly 4 cents to about $3.64.

Gold and silver mining equities rose over 1% at the open, but they then steadily fell for the rest of trade and ended with about 2% losses.

On the economic front, the IMF lowered its global growth forecast in part due to the housing slowdown in the US and that started to really concern some analysts as most have held that a US housing slowdown would not greatly impact world economic growth.

This rings especially true after housing concerns voiced by US Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed chief Bernanke hit the market on Tuesday. Stagflation was a word heard more than once from several analysts today.

The Fed’s Beige Book, released at the start of afternoon trade in New York, was pretty gloomy overall as they noted housing problems, worker shortages, expensive imports due to a Declining dollar, and slowing economic growth overall.

Thursday at 08:30 EST brings Initial Jobless Claims for week-ending 13th Oct. At 10:00 comes the Leading Economic Indicators report for Sept., followed by the Philadelphia Fed survey for October.

In the broader markets on Wednesday, oil traded mixed as a very bearish inventory report battled bullish geopolitical concerns. After Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan played down expectations of any imminent attack on Tuesday, Turkey's parliament resoundingly approved a motion to allow troops to cross into northern Iraq and hunt down Kurdish rebels.

Turkey's Western allies and Baghdad urged Ankara to refrain, but oil shot to a new record high above $89 per barrel. Prices then fell as the US inventory report came in better than expected.

The US Dollar index fell back near new record lows and Treasury bonds rose substantially as CPI came in about as expected. US housing construction data came in even worse than low expectations yet again.

When combined with recent concerning comments from Bernanke and Paulson and a lowered IMF global growth forecast today, speculation grew that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates at their next meeting on Halloween and that appeared to be the chief driver of the currency and bond markets.

The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P opened higher on stronger than expected earnings reports before they all fell to find losses by early afternoon. All three indices ended well off their lows of the day, however, and only the Dow ended with a loss.

"I am sure that this is it! Other than a pressing, and positive use for cash, I suggest holding tight to your investment positions in gold," advises Jim Sinclair at

"When Gold Prices broke for the 2nd time above $400 in the Seventies, I put the same word in the Sinclair Group weekly newsletter. Sure there were ups and downs but the up went higher each time with higher lows. This was the point I dropped the sell 1/3 rule and just said hold. We do not know what day it will blast past every short, thereby forcing them to cover in one the smallest markets for a major item in the world, played heavily by the largest interests in the world.

"I do feel that event is coming much sooner than I would have been willing to say last year. That means it could well go higher than $1650."

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Adrian Ash

Adrian Ash, BullionVault Gold News

Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the world-leading physical gold, silver and platinum market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and he has now been researching and writing daily analysis of precious metals and the wider financial markets for over 20 years. A frequent guest on BBC radio and television, Adrian is regularly quoted by the Financial Times, MarketWatch and many other respected news outlets, and his views from inside the bullion market have been sought by the Economist magazine, CNBC, Bloomberg, Germany's Handelsblatt and FAZ, plus Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore.

See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews.

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