Gold News

Gold Dealing Hits "Summer Lull" But Bullish Trend "Intact", Bank Analysts Forecast Rising Prices

Gold edged lower as the US Dollar also slipped early Monday in London, reversing a 0.5% rise in Asian trade as world stock markets rose with commodity prices.

Crude oil rose sharply to $75 per barrel. Major-economy government bonds fell in price, pushing 10-year interest rates above 3.25% on US Treasuries.

"Blame it on the World Cup or summer lull," says one Hong Kong dealer, "but gold is losing momentum and trading interest is subsiding."

"We're getting into the summer, so I wouldn't be surprised if things quieten down for a while," says Afshin Nabave, head of trading at Swiss refining group MKS Finance.

"But overall, as long as the economic and political situation continues, I think gold has good chance of eventually breaking the $1250-ish area and heading for $1300."

On the currency markets today, the Euro rose above $1.22 for the first time in a week after new data showed Eurozone industrial output rising more quickly than expected in April.

Auditors sent by the European Union and International Monetary Fund arrived in Athens this morning to judge progress in slashing Greece's budget deficit from 14% of GDP to the 2014 target – and EU limit – of 3%.

The British Pound meantime jumped towards 1-month highs above $1.47 after the UK's new, independent Office for Budgetary Responsibility cut the previous government's GDP growth target from 3.25% to 2.60% for 2011, but said the public deficit wouldn't be quite as bad as forecast.

Japan's new prime minister, Naoto Kan, warned in his first major speech on Friday that Tokyo's debt is at "risk of collapse".

"Our country's outstanding public debt is huge. Our public finances have become the worst of any developed country."

Gold priced in Japanese Yen ticked higher on Monday, with Tokyo Gold Futures ending 1% higher at €3645 per gram, some 1.5% below last week's 27-year high.

UK investors wanting to buy gold for Pounds today saw it drop 1.1% but hold well above Friday's 1-week lows beneath £830 an ounce. The Gold Price in Euros dropped the same proportion, falling to its lowest level since June 4th at €1001 per ounce (€32,175 per kilo).

"Higher highs and higher lows keep the bullish trend [in Dollar Gold Prices] intact," says technical analysis from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta, noting that Friday saw gold complete its third consecutive weekly rise.

"Silver lacks direction, but gold is in a bull trend, so we would expect the Gold-Silver Ratio to drift higher."

Historically set around 15 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold, the Gold-Silver Ratio averaged nearer 40 during the 20th century. It "actually dropped" last week, says Scotia, "from 69.64 to 67.27."

Silver Prices rose towards new June highs against the Dollar early in London on Monday, trading above $18.50 an ounce and pulling the Gold-Silver Ratio down to 66.57.

Agreeing with a note published today by Swiss bank UBS, analysts at Morgan Stanley "continue to like the outlook [for precious metals] in the coming months amid low global interest rates and unresolved Eurozone debt turmoil.

"We expect Gold Prices to rise on a quarterly average basis for the rest of the year."

Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the world-leading physical gold, silver and platinum market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and he has now been researching and writing daily analysis of precious metals and the wider financial markets for over 20 years. A frequent guest on BBC radio and television, Adrian is regularly quoted by the Financial Times, MarketWatch and many other respected news outlets, and his views from inside the bullion market have been sought by the Economist magazine, CNBC, Bloomberg, Germany's Handelsblatt and FAZ, plus Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore.

See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews.

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