Just how does 'Easy Al' Greenspan do it...?

Only yesterday the former Fed chairman said the US Dollar would keep sliding until America's trade deficit shrank. Today the US Commerce Department has said that September's trade deficit fell to $58.9bn from $64.3bn in August.

Uncanny! The US Dollar has promptly rallied, knocking gold back below $630/oz.

"The Dollar is probably going to regain some ground ahead of year-end," says a dealer in New York. "I think we are going to see gold lower."

Meantime, the current Fed chairman - Ben Bernanke - is flying to Beijing on Thursday to press Chinese officials for a stronger Yuan. First though, he will announce the latest US rates decision at 19:15 GMT today. Wall Street consensus forecasts a "stick" at 5.25%. The trade data will only support that call. And gold buyers have another reason to expect cheaper prices going into Christmas.

India's current wedding season – a key driver of jewelry demand in the sub-continent – will end this month. "The Christmas season is [also] more or less done," notes Darren Heathcote of Investec Australia in Sydney. "Jewelers have bought gold to manufacture it. It's the sales part now."

US jeweler reports also suggest the best may be behind them – unless they're willing to discount prices in the stores. A study from the US Jewelry Consumer Opinion Council (JCOC) reports strong sales over the Thanksgiving Weekend of mid-November. Nearly half of jeweler buyers responding to the survey said they'd been lured in by cut-price sales.

And what's happening on the other side of the equation – the supply side of the gold market? To read the latest view from the vault, click here now...