Gold News

Gold Price Extends 2nd-Best Year-on-Year Gain, "Sept Inflows Expected" as Strong China Data Sees Silver "Get Tight" in Hong Kong

The Gold Price touched its highest level since late-June's record peak early in London on Wednesday, extending August's record-high monthly close as world stock markets rose together with commodities and government bond yields.

New data showed rapid growth in Chinese manufacturing and Australian GDP.

Friday's key US employment data was preceded however by the private-sector ADP Payrolls Report, which showed its first loss since March, down by 10,000 jobs against the 20,000 growth expected.

"We are in a bind," writes Bill Gross of bond-fund giant Pimco in his new monthly outlook, urging fresh quantitative easing of mortgage-backed securities.

"Having grown accustomed to a housing market aided and abetted by Uncle Sam, the habit cannot be broken by going cold turkey into the camp of private lending...crippling any hopes of a housing-led revival to the economy."

The Dollar dropped to a 1-week low vs. the Euro on the news. The USD Gold Price retreated from $1254 to $1249 an ounce.

"[Last night's] $1247 is a new record-high monthly close," notes Russell Browne in his technical analysis from bullion-bank Scotia Mocatta, "beating June's $1241.

"Although Gold Price action is stepping up, we remain cautious around month end. [But] the bullish close increased the pressure for a test of the record high of $1265 and beyond."

The Gold Price in Dollars ended Tuesday with its best August performance since 1986, gaining 6.6% for the month.

Year-on-year, last night's record-high monthly finish saw gold stand more than 30% higher, its second-best August-to-August after 2006's 43.9%.

"Gold convincingly broke through a downwards sloping trendline yesterday," sayss a London dealer today. "The $1250 level now remains the last technical barrier to a return to the record highs of June.

"With September inflows expected, continued strength may be in store."

"Also of note is a tightening in the Physical Silver market," says Standard Bank's senior commodity analyst, Walter de Wet,  "with increased demand from mainland China absorbing much of the silver supply traditionally coming to the wider market from Hong Kong."

Silver Bullion traded in London touched a 16-week high of $19.55 an ounce on Wednesday – a level last seen at May's 14-month peak.

World stock markets meantime shot higher, with London's FTSE-100 gaining 1.5% by lunchtime.

In Athens, short-selling of Greek stocks was again allowed today, with the main index trading some 12% below the level of late-April, when a ban on "speculation" was imposed.

Alongside the Euro and Sterling, the Japanese Yen also rose again on the forex market, edging towards last week's 15-year highs at ¥83.70 to the Dollar despite Tuesday's announcement of €11 trillion ($127bn) in new fiscal and monetary stimulus.

"Too little, too late," is how former Bank of Japan policymaker Noboyuki Nakahara described it.

Faced with flagging export sales, "The [Tokyo] government is running out of policy options with interest rates this low," says CLSA's Greed & Fear analyst Christopher Woods in Hong Kong.

Reversing Tuesday's losses, the three central-bank reserve currencies knocked the Gold Price back by 1% from near two-month highs at £816 per ounce, €31,687 per kilo and ¥3145 per gram respectively.

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Adrian Ash

Adrian Ash, BullionVault Gold News

Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the world-leading physical gold, silver and platinum market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and he has now been researching and writing daily analysis of precious metals and the wider financial markets for over 20 years. A frequent guest on BBC radio and television, Adrian is regularly quoted by the Financial Times, MarketWatch and many other respected news outlets, and his views from inside the bullion market have been sought by the Economist magazine, CNBC, Bloomberg, Germany's Handelsblatt and FAZ, plus Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore.

See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews.

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