Gold News

Gold starts the week unchanged as investors "absorb" Fed rate-cut

Spot Gold Prices dipped before rebounding early Monday, recording an AM Fix in London of $658.50 per ounce, virtually unchanged from Friday's US close.

"Some people are still afraid there might be more bad news ahead and liquidity in the Gold Market is poor because most of the traders are not back from their summer holiday," said Ng Cheng Thye, head of Standard Bank's precious metals desk in Singapore, to Bloomberg earlier.

"Investors might still liquidate assets for margin calls and those involved in the subprime woes still don't know how bad the damage is," he added, saying that physical buying from jewelers should cap any decline in Dollar gold prices to $650, he added.

Liquidation hit the largest exchange-traded gold funds late last week, with StreetTracks GLD selling three tonnes of the gold it holds in trust for its shareholders on Thursday. The LyxOr GBS fund traded in London, Paris, Milan and Frankfurt dropped more than six tonnes that day, equivalent to 6.5% of its bullion holdings.

But while the world's largest financial institutions may be forced to sell gold as they scramble to cover losses elsewhere, demand from private investors and jewelry buyers continues to look strong ahead of the traditionally busy Indian gold-buying season that starts next month.

The World Gold Council announced on Sunday that gold demand in Saudi Arabia rose faster than first reported between April and June, growing by more than 30% from a year earlier. "The Saudi market saw a very strong recovery in the second quarter," said Moaz Barakat, managing director of the WGC's Middle Eastern office. "Gold prices were less volatile and the euphoria of the stock market and selling gold to invest in stocks cooled off."

In Tokyo today, the benchmark June '08 gold futures contract leapt 2.5% against the Japanese Yen, closing Monday's session equivalent to $664.91 per ounce. The Nikkei stock market index rose 3% – its greatest one-day surge in 13 months – as Japanese equity investors caught up with Friday's US rally, led by a cut in the interest rate charged to big investment banks by the Federal Reserve. European stocks opened around 1% higher on average after putting in their best day since 2003 in response to the Fed's move on Friday.

"I imagine people are still absorbing the implications of the Fed action," says David Moore of Commonwealth Bank in Sydney, Australia. "It would have provided some support for Gold Prices, certainly for investor confidence.

"For the week ahead, I suspect that we'll see the gold price hold mostly above $645. On the topside, I'd say, probably $667."

The Fed's action took the cost of borrowing short-term emergency funds from its "discount window" down from 6.25% to 5.75%. The first cut since June 2003, and the largest move in the primary discount rate since November 2002, this rate-cut is only available to the largest investment institutions, but a cut in the broader Fed funds rate is now widely expected.

A report from Investec this morning says the market is putting a 60% chance on lower Dollar lending rates in September. Two-year US Treasury bond yields dropped 26 basis points last week to 4.19%.

In the currency markets, the Dollar declines begun by the Federal Reserve's lower rates on Friday continued early Monday, with the British Pound rising to $1.9862 even as the Bank of England said that Britain's broad money supply grew by 13% year-on-year in July. Domestic credit growth hit 13.8% annualized.

The European single currency failed to rise as strongly as the Pound, however, starting the week at $1.3500 and keeping the Euro Price of Gold just shy of €488 per ounce. For British investors wanting to Buy Gold Today the metal opened the week at £331.40 per ounce, little changed from last Monday's start.

"There is still uncertainty in the markets," says today's technical gold note from Standard Bank in Johannesburg, "which should see US government bonds well bid. On Friday the yield of the 10-year US government bond was again lower at 4.68%."

With no major data releases due today, investors will be forced to consider the true cost of the Fed's lower interest rates. For while that 0.5% cut in the discount stemmed financial losses on Friday, growth in the cost of living has not retreated since the Fed said that its "predominant policy concern remained the risk that inflation would fail to moderate as expected" at its July meeting.

What do lower interest rates plus rising inflation mean for gold prices? To download an in-depth gold report today – free with the compliments of BullionVaultclick here now...

Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the physical gold and silver market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and is now a regular contributor to many leading analysis sites including Forbes and a regular guest on BBC national and international radio and television news. Adrian's views on the gold market have been sought by the Financial Times and Economist magazine in London; CNBC, Bloomberg and TheStreet.com in New York; Germany's Der Stern; Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore, and many other respected finance publications.

See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews.

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