Silver ETFs Shrink, Bullion Investing 'Non-Existent' Ahead of the Fed
Wednesday, 6/18/2025 15:34
GOLD held little changed beneath $3400 on Wednesday while silver investing ETFs shrank and prices dipped back through $37 per ounce ahead of the US Federal Reserve's latest interest-rate decision and forecasts.
"We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran," President Trump meantime tweeted, confirming US military involvement in Israel's attacks on Iran and threatening to kill the Supreme Leader of Tehran's theocratic dictatorship.
With the Fed expected to leave US interest rates unchanged for the 6th month running with a ceiling at 4.50% at today's June meeting, New York stock markets opened the day higher, while the price of gold traded in a $30 range beneath $3400 per Troy ounce − a new record high 8 weeks ago.
Silver investing prices also held firm, setting a fresh 13-year high Wednesday morning in London, before dropping 30 cents to dip through $37, a level broken yesterday for the first time since February 2012 by the
industrially-useful precious metal.
From here to silver's all-time top of $50 in New Year 1980 took less than 3 weeks, and silver took only a little over 4 weeks to move from $37 to re-touch that peak in spring 2011.
"[This month's] break-out north of $35 per ounce was almost entirely speculative led, it was a futures-based rally," says Daniel Ghali, director commodity strategy at Canadian brokerage TD Securities.
"It's very
hard to see any catalyst, any macro-economic event that led to that increase in speculation."
Trading volumes in Comex July silver futures, now the precious metal's most active contract on the CME derivatives exchange, yesterday jumped to the heaviest since 5th June's price rise through $35.
In contrast however, the giant iShares silver investment trust (NYSEArca: SLV) reversed Monday's net inflow entirely, taking its size back down to 14,675 tonnes, equal to around 55% of annual global mine supply.
That was a 6-month high 2 weeks ago, when the precious metal was trading more than $1 lower than today.
No.2 silver ETF the Sprott product (NYSEArca: PSLV) meantime reported an 18-kilo change to its 5,944-tonne backing, extending a 6-session run of next-to-no inflows after swelling 5.8% in size so far in 2025.
The price of silver has meantime risen 26.1% in US Dollar terms.
Across the silver investing space, "42% of this year's net ETF [inflows] have come in June," says Rhona O'Connell, precious metals specialist at brokerage StoneX.
"Retail investment non-existent. Solar cells currently over-supplied."
Ahead of the Fed and its new 'dot plot' interest-rate forecasts, the Dollar edged back Wednesday, snapping its 1.3% rally from last Wednesday's 3-year low the DXY index against other rich-economy currencies, but trading within 0.2% of April's 17-year highs against the Chinese Yuan, struck after US President Trump imposed swingeing trade tariffs on America's largest goods importer.
Crude oil also traded little changed after surging 28.7% from the start of May's 4-year low, holding European benchmark Brent at $76 per barrel.
"As well as silver ETFs, investment in physical bullion is also relatively lacklustre," says the latest note from analysts SFA (Oxford) for German bullion refiners Heraeus, "with sales performance of silver coin sales at the US Mint lagging last year’s by 39% year-to-date."
Premiums over spot prices for gold and silver coins in the US retail market are now at record lows according to Maryland-based dealers Asset Strategies International, founded over 4 decades ago.
Earlier on Wednesday, the silver price had risen almost 10 cents for the day at London's 12 noon auction, while the price of gold also edged higher from Tuesday morning, fixing above $3380 per Troy ounce.
That snapped the 5-session run of divergence in the 2 precious metals, ending
the longest day-to-day split between gold and silver prices so far this century.
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