Gold Trading "Nervous, Defensive" as Speculators Hike Bearish Bets, Analysts Forecast Narrow Year-End Price Range
Monday, 11/18/2013 13:40
GOLD TRADING was quiet Monday morning, with prices stumbling 0.9% to $1279 at lunchtime in London as commodities slipped but major government bond price edged higher.
European shares drifted lower, but the MSCI World index was pulled up to 6-year highs by a sharp rise in Chinese equities.
China's gold trading volumes were in line with last week's muted action, with spot prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange ending the day at $3.90 premium per ounce to the world's benchmark gold quote for London settlement.
Silver traded in London fell 1.3% to $20.54 per ounce before ticking higher in line with gold.
"With no significant impulses expected," says the latest weekly update from refining group Heraeus, "we foresee a sideway movement [in gold trading] in a range of $1280-1295 for the next few days."
"Overall this is a sideways environment," agrees bullion market-maker ScotiaMocatta's head of precious metals trading Simon Weeks, speaking to Reuters.
"Prices are likely to trade within a range in the near term," says Barclays analyst Suki Cooper, noting that "a potential pick-up in Chinese buying ahead of Chinese New Year may provide some support on the downside."
Looking at last week's
dovish testimony on 2014 Federal Reserve policy from likely chairwoman Janet Yellen however, "Gold has been presented with a number of catalysts over the past year and in particular over the past two months, all of which have failed to reignite investor demand," Cooper adds, noting that in the US Comex gold futures and options market, latest data show "the most aggressive reduction in positioning since March 2012."
In the week-ending last Tuesday, the "net long" of bullish minus bearish bets held by speculative players fell 25% to a 4-week low, new data from regulators the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed late Friday.
As a group, non-industry players trading
gold futures and options raised the size of their short positions by 60% to the highest level in 3 months.
"The ratio of the longs to shorts" amongst those speculators trading gold futures "was, at 1.79, the lowest since mid-August," says analysis from ANZ Bank.
Across 17 other commodities trading contracts, notes Bloomberg, the net long position (of bullish minus bearish bets) fell 12%.
"People were feeling very bearish before Yellen's statement," the newswire quotes Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at the $3 billion National Securities Corp. in New York.
"Her comments were dovish and can be seen as a postponement to tapering, which is definitely helpful for gold. But the main reasons why gold has fallen are intact. Inflation is low, and equity markets continue to march ahead."
Wednesday this week brings US consumer price inflation data for October, expected to slip to 1.1% annually.
But after the US Federal Reserve failed to "taper" its quantitative easing of $85 billion per month as expected in September, "It's unlikely that [current chairman] Bernanke will do anything at his last meeting if he perceives that his successor would prefer to leave policy unchanged," says Nic Brown, head of commodities research at French investment bank and London bullion dealer Natixis.
"The Dollar may drop back...potentially positive for gold prices in the very short term."
But "There are hardly any strong views out there at the moment," says a note from Swiss investment bank and London bullion market maker UBS.
"Instead, there is a lot of nervous, defensive trading as investors strive to either protect [year-to-date] profits or avoid losses as we head closer into year-end."
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