Gold News

Gold Prices Rise in Euro as Rising Dollar Hits Commodity Rally, Silver Holds 26% Down

Gold Prices gave back most of a 1% overnight rally to $1510 per ounce in London on Monday morning, falling as the US Dollar rose on the currency market and European stock markets dropped.

US crude oil stalled after a 2.7% rally to $100 per barrel.

The Silver Price rallied to $38.00 at Monday's London Fix – rising over 11% from Friday lunchtime's Fix – before also slipping back to trade 26% below late April's 3-decade record.

"More than 36 million ounces of silver [was] dumped into the market between April 26 through this past Thursday," reports the Wall Street Journal, "more silver than all the American Eagle silver coins that investors bought from the US Mint last year."

Drifting back down to $1500 per ounce in wholesale London trade today, Dollar Gold Prices remained 4% lower from last week's new all-time high of $1576.

"Overall, we seem to be witnessing the impact of the unwinding of QE2 with risky assets taking a hit," said one London-based bullion dealer on Monday.

If QE2 has indeed caused a bubble in many asset classes, adds a bullion dealer in Hong Kong, then "the most risky asset class would respond first."

"We do not expect gold to slump excessively in the coming weeks," says a note published by German precious metals group Heraeus. "The political, financial and economic uncertainty seems far too high for this to happen."

"The fundamentals have not changed and investors are back," agrees Naoki Mita, vice president at Barclays Capital.

"Physical demand continues to prevail at these lower prices," adds Swiss precious metals group MKS.

"The only notable decline in physical buying has been from China...South East Asian and Indian demand has remained firm."

Over on the forex markets on Monday, the Euro reversed an earlier bounce to trade near Friday's 3-week lows, hit after German newspaper Der Spiegel claimed that Athens is considering taking Greece out of the 17-nation Eurozone currency union.

"We have not been discussing the exit of Greece from the Euro area, this is a stupid idea, it is in no way an avenue we would never take," said Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the Euro finance minister group, after a previously secret meeting late Friday.

Pointing to the next discussion of Greek debt restructuring – scheduled for May 16 – "We don't want to have the Euro area exploding without reason," he added.

Gold Prices for Euro investors today rose above €33,750 per kilo, a 1-week high less than 2.5% below Dec. 2010's all-time high.

"It is too early to say that silver has started to rebound, as it is still stuck in a descending channel," said a trader to Reuters in Tokyo, where markets re-opened today after the long Golden Week holidays.

"What will eventually decide the price trend in precious metals is US monetary policy...From a medium-to-long term perspective, $35 is a reasonable level to buy."

With volatility tripling in the last month, "Silver is inherently much more volatile than gold," warns French banking group Credit Agricole in a note.

Gold's daily volatility today stood below its 4-decade average, remaining less volatile than US equity markets.

"Given the magnitude of the pullback [in commodities], it does create an opportunity for more upside potential," says Jeffrey Currie, head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs in London, who last month advised investors to go "underweight" raw materials.

"In the very near term" investors should be "a little cautious," he adds.

"We think that the early May sell-off has recalibrated the markets to more reasonable, but still excessive, valuations," added derivative broker MF Global in its monthly commodity review.

"This is not a turning point," believes Kevin Norrish, London-based managing director at Barclays Capital.

"We'd expect to see a pretty good recovery from these levels before too long."

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Editor of Gold News and presenter of BullionVault 's weekly gold market summary on YouTube from 2011 to 2013, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.

See full archive of Ben Traynor articles.

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