Gold News

Wholesale Gold Bars in $5 Range, 'Support at $1195' as US Jobs Data Weaken, India Cuts Rates, Turkey Exports More Gold on Lira Drop

GOLD BAR prices held unchanged in London's wholesale market on Wednesday, moving less than $5 per ounce as world stock markets ticked higher but US equity futures pointed lower after weaker than expected jobs data.
 
The Dollar retreated near 11-year highs to the Euro after the ADP report for February – a private-sector estimate released ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report from Washington – said the US economy added 212,000 net jobs, below analyst forecasts.
 
The central bank of India – the world's No.1 gold consumer nation – meantime followed gold No.2 China in making a surprise cut to its key interest rates. 
 
Gold traded in large, 400-ounce bars ticked around $1205 per ounce, but held flat for the week so far in Euro terms near €1083.
 
"Gold failed to capitalise on the strong reversal seen [Tuesday] in Asia," says Swiss refiner MKS's trading desk.
 
"The outlook is a little mixed," says an Asian dealer's note, "but as [long] as the price trades above $1190, look for a push back to $1241-44."
 
"Gold is tentatively holding the trend line support drawn from early December (1194/90 levels)," says a technical chart analysis from French bank and London bullion market maker Societe Generale.
 
"The 4-month support line," agrees Germany's Commerzbank in a technical analysis, "is located at $1195...and there does appear some reluctance to break down [below it]."
 
Commerzbank also sees "overhead resistance" at $1240 per ounce.
 
Fundamentally however, says David Jollie at Japanese trading house Mitsui Global Precious Metals, "We still feel this market is in need of a new narrative and some new direction."
 
In Turkey today – the world's fourth largest consumer of gold bars, coins and jewelry – gold prices rose near January's two-year highs, as the Lira fell to fresh record lows against the Dollar on the FX market.
 
Turkey's gold exports in January and February more than doubled from the same period last year, according to Reuters, helping trim the country's otherwise worsening trade deficit.
 
Food prices led the country's 7.6% annual inflation in consumer prices last month, official data said Tuesday.
 
Following aggressive calls from senior political figures including President Erdogan, the central bank last week trimmed its main refinancing rate to 7.5%.
 
"Anyone who defends [not cutting rates further] is at the beck and call of the interest-rate lobby," Erdogan said Saturday, calling it " treason against this nation."
 
A column at the Hurriyet Daily News today says Erdogan believes both that the "interest rate lobby" was behind 2013's popular protests in Gezi Park – seeking to revive easy profits from high rates by removing his government – and also in "a whole new theory of economics, which apparently derives from Islamism: High interest rates cause high inflation."
 
Turkey's reported reserves of gold bars, which quadrupled after commercial banks were allowed in late 2011 to hold bullion as part of their liquidity reserves, slipped by 18 tonnes between December and the start of last month.

Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the world-leading physical gold, silver and platinum market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and he has now been researching and writing daily analysis of precious metals and the wider financial markets for over 20 years. A frequent guest on BBC radio and television, Adrian is regularly quoted by the Financial Times, MarketWatch and many other respected news outlets, and his views from inside the bullion market have been sought by the Economist magazine, CNBC, Bloomberg, Germany's Handelsblatt and FAZ, plus Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore.

See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews.

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