VOLATILITY in the Gold Price has risen sharply in the last 12 months but remains well shy of "speculative blow-off" needed to mark the top of gold's long-term bull market, according to a senior US bank analyst.
Speaking at last week's Market Technicians Association symposium in New York, C.MacNeil Curry – head of FX and interest-rate technical analysis at Bank of America-Merrill – said that Gold Price volatility has been nothing like strong enough to signal the end of the metal's historic 11-year rise. Nor has trading volume been heavy enough, he believes.
Long-term secular bull markets "don't end quietly," said Curry.
"Until we see the Gold Price take some kind of massive speculative blow-off, where prices effectively double in a year or less, I have to maintain a long-term bullish bias."
Denying that the global economy needs to hit a "Doomsday scenario" for gold to rise substantially higher, Curry projected a move in the Gold Price to between $3000 and $5000 per ounce – with the potential for $7000 per ounce on his Elliott Wave analysis of long-term cycles and trends.
Curry also said he doesn't believe the Silver Price will join in this surge. Peaking at $50 per ounce in April 2011, silver has already seen its best levels, the BoA-Merrill Lynch analyst said, predicting that gold and silver – typically moving closely together – will decouple.
Curry's forecast for a doubling or more in the Gold Price contrasts with recent gold price targets set by a range of other bank and commodity desk analysts.
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