We use cookies (including third-party cookies such as Google) to remember your site preferences and to help us understand how visitors use our sites so we can improve them. To learn more, please see our privacy policy and our cookie policy.

To agree to our use of cookies, click 'Accept' or choose 'Options' to set your preferences by cookie type.

Options Accept
BullionVault

CHARTS

  • English
  • Deutsch
  • Español
  • Français
  • Italiano
  • Polski
  • 日本語
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Daily audit
  • Help
  • Contact
  • Deposit
  • Login
  • Open account
  • ABOUT US
    • About BullionVault
    • In the press
    • Reviews
    BUY/SELL BULLION
    • Vaulted gold & silver
    • -Live order board
    • -Daily Price
    • Coins for delivery (UK)
    INVESTMENT GUIDE
    • Guide to gold
    • -How to buy gold
    • -Gold investment
    • -Gold investment plan
    • -Investment insurance
    • -Compare asset performance
    • Guide to silver
    • -How to buy silver
    • Guide to platinum
    • -How to buy platinum
    GOLD NEWS
    • Gold news front page
    • -Gold price news
    • -Opinion & analysis
    • -Market fundamentals
    • -Gold/Silver Investor Index
    • -Infographics
    CHARTS
    • Gold price
    • Silver price
    • Platinum price
    • Price alerts
  • Login
  • Open account
  • BUY/SELL BULLION
  • Vaulted gold & silver
    • ⤷
    • Live order board
    • Daily Price
  • Coins for delivery (UK)
  • INVESTMENT GUIDE
  • Guide to gold
    • ⤷
    • How to buy gold
    • Gold investment
    • Gold investment plan
    • Investment insurance
    • Compare asset performance
  • Guide to silver
    • ⤷
    • How to buy silver
  • Guide to platinum
    • ⤷
    • How to buy platinum
  • GOLD NEWS
  • Gold news front page
    • ⤷
    • Gold price news
    • Opinion & analysis
    • Market fundamentals
    • Gold/Silver Investor Index
    • Infographics
  • CHARTS
  • Gold price
  • Silver price
  • Platinum price
  • Price alerts
  • ABOUT US
  • About BullionVault
  • In the press
  • Reviews
  • Help
  • Contact
  • Daily audit
    • English
    • Deutsch
    • Español
    • Français
    • Italiano
    • Polski
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文

Gold News

Live support

NEED HELP? ASK US NOW

Search form

Gold News front page

Gold Price News

Gold Priced Like Covid Never Happened as Powell 'Fails to Rescue' Stocks from Bond Slump

More...

Gold Investing In Depth

Learn about gold bullion bars

Learn about gold bullion coins (and costs)

Gold investment: Why & how?

Gold Investment Analysis

  • Latest Gold Investor Index
  • Diversification: Gold as investment insurance
  • 40-year Asset Performance Comparison Table

Gold Articles

Opinion & Analysis

Gold Price News

Investment News

Gold in History

Gold Books

Gold Investor Index

Gold Infographics

Archive

  • March 2021 (5)
  • February 2021 (23)
  • January 2021 (25)
  • December 2020 (24)
  • November 2020 (23)
More...

List of authors

Platinum Investment 'Will Slash' 2019 Market Surplus

Thursday, 5/16/2019 13:05
ETF investing drives 18% platinum price rally so far...
 
DEMAND to invest in platinum will slash the metal's global market surplus in 2019 according to a raft of analysis published to mark London Platinum Week.
 
One leading research report in fact forecasts that, thanks to surging investment, platinum will see its first deficit in 3 years, with total supply lagging demand.
 
With the metal's price rising 17.7% by mid-April from last summer's 10-year low, "A dramatic turnaround in investor sentiment stimulated heavy buying of platinum ETFs in early 2019," says the new PGM Market Report from refining and technology specialists Johnson Matthey, predicting that the global market will move into deficit across this year as a whole.
 
"Investors were motivated by supply disruption risks and an improving outlook for auto demand," Johnson Matthey goes on, pointing both to concerns over wage disputes in No.1 platinum miner South Africa plus how tighter engine emissions rules for heavy-duty vehicles in China and India will likely boost platinum demand for autocatalysts "over the next two years."
 
"In the first quarter," agrees Trevor Raymond, director of research at the mining-industry backed World Platinum Investment Council, "we had the combination of rising prices, a downside supply risk in South Africa, and there were several demand growth signals."
 
Across 2019 as a whole, Raymond's team now see platinum's surplus of supply over demand almost halving from their previous forecast to less than 12 tonnes, with total demand – net of recycling supply – growing 10% from last year to almost 187 tonnes.
 
Johnson Matthey also forecasts 10% growth in 2019's total demand net of recycling, rising above 196 tonnes on the refining group's data.
 
Excluding platinum investment however, JM's figure for autocat, industrial and jewelry demand combined comes almost 5% below 2018's level at the weakest since 2012.
 
Platinum prices that year averaged $1550 per ounce, more than 83% above the current level of $850.
 
Chart of platinum demand net of recycling, last 10 years, excluding investment. Source: BullionVault via Johnson Matthey
 
"Platinum's fundamentals are actually expected to worsen in 2019," says the new Platinum & Palladium Focus from independent analysts Metals Focus, "[but] the good news for platinum prices is that it looks like the investor community is no longer as negative."
 
Pointing to "changing expectations" for US monetary policy as the Federal Reserve puts its interest-rate hikes on hold, there's also a "sense that platinum prices found a floor in the mid to upper $700s" last year, Metals Focus explains.
 
Sentiment towards investing in platinum was further boosted by "the possibility" of substitution for palladium in gasoline autocatalysts, the consultancy says.
 
Raymond at WPIC also sees " potential for platinum to be used in gasoline vehicles", and "although there are technical challenges to overcome," says Johnson Matthey, "we think there may be potential for additional platinum use in gasoline applications within a two- to three-year timeframe."
 
Some 40% of platinum's end-demand use comes from autocatalysts to reduce harmful emissions from diesel engines. The precious metal has nearly halved in price since the 'Dieselgate' scandal broke in 2015, with major car manufacturers now being prosecuted for cheating emissions tests.
 
Also used primarily in autocats, sister-metal palladium currently finds 80% of its end-demand in gasoline engine systems. It has almost trebled in price since Dieselgate, with total global demand outstrippng supply for the last 7 years running on Metals Focus' data.
 
The surge in platinum investing between January and March of this year saw the largest quarterly rise in exchange-traded trust fund holdings since platinum ETFs were launched in 2007. That helped create the largest quarterly deficit across the market since WPIC began publishing 3-monthly data in 2014.
 
Out of WPIC's full-year forecast for 2019 investment demand – the least bullish compared to Metals Focus and Johnson Matthey's predictions – more than 90% already took place in Q1.
 
"Despite [the] rally [so far] in 2019," says Metals Focus, "platinum's annual average price is expected to slip by 1% to $875, whereas palladium is forecast to enjoy a 45% leap to a record $1490."
  • Reddit logo
  • Facebook logo
  • Twitter logo
  • Google logo
  • Yahoo logo
  • LinkedIn logo
  • Digg logo
  • StumbleUpon logo
  • Technorati logo

Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the physical gold and silver market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and is now a regular contributor to many leading analysis sites including Forbes and a regular guest on BBC national and international radio and television news. Adrian's views on the gold market have been sought by the Financial Times and Economist magazine in London; CNBC, Bloomberg and TheStreet.com in New York; Germany's Der Stern; Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore, and many other respected finance publications.

See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews.

Please Note: All articles published here are to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. Please review our Terms & Conditions for accessing Gold News.

Follow Us

Facebook Youtube Twitter LinkedIn

 

Mobile apps

 - live trading 24/7

 - buy & sell instantly

 - up-to-the-second charts

 

 

 

Daily news email
Go to 'communications settings' 

Get the latest daily gold price news free by email

Latest gold news by email

 

 

 

Gold Investor Index
2 March 2021

Silver Investor Index

Silver beats gold again

 

 

 

LBMA webinar
21 January 2021

LBMA

London gold trading

 

 

 

Bloomberg TV
1 February 2021

Bloomberg TV

r/silver-surge

 

 

 

ET Now
3 March 2021

Gold drop

Gold's big drop

 

 

 

  •  Email us

Market Fundamentals

  • Green Energy: Platinum Key to New 'Hydrogen Catapult'
  • 2021 Gold Price to Rise 11.5%: LBMA Forecast
  • 'Cut Bullion Duty to Cut Smuggling': India's Gold Industry
More...
  • Cost calculator
  • Cookies
  • Terms & conditions

©BullionVault Ltd 2005-

  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube

Save your cookie preferences

We use cookies to remember your site preferences, record your referrer and improve the performance of our site. For more information, see our cookie policy.

Please select an option below and 'Save' your preferences.

Save

You can update your cookie preferences at any time from the 'Cookies' link in the footer.

Secure auto-logout warning

You have not been active for some time.

For your security you will be logged out in   minutes unless you take action.