Gold News

Summer Doldrums Hit Sterling Gold Price

The Gold Price for UK savers has gone nowhere for 2 months...

LONG-TERM ANALYSIS of the stock-market shows that the adage "Sell in May" is based on hard fact, if not quite a fail-safe timing strategy, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault.

Gold investors and traders should note the seasonal pattern to bullion prices, as well.

The Gold Price is Sterling hasn't gone anywhere for two months now. That's perfectly usual over mid-summer however.

Dipping from a spring peak and holding flat through the summer, gold typically makes a clear break to new ground in early autumn. What's then separated bull from bear markets has been a sharp gain running into Christmas and the New Year.

Nineteen times in the last 44 years, in fact, Buying Gold even at its highest price during July or August has paid off for UK investors by year end. It's returned some 13.5% on average. Whether or not 2012 continues to map that path, flat prices are very much the norm for gold at the current time of year.

What lies behind this seasonal pattern? The same summer lull that hits equity markets also hits precious metals dealing desks, of course. It's also monsoon season in India (not just the UK), meaning consumer gold-buying in the world's hungriest physical market is traditionally absent. As a rule, it then surges into the auspicious festival of Diwali, which tends to coincide with the dread late-autumn jitters in Western equity markets.

Looking to time a new Gold Investment today...?

Adrian Ash

Adrian Ash, BullionVault Gold News

Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the world-leading physical gold, silver and platinum market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and he has now been researching and writing daily analysis of precious metals and the wider financial markets for over 20 years. A frequent guest on BBC radio and television, Adrian is regularly quoted by the Financial Times, MarketWatch and many other respected news outlets, and his views from inside the bullion market have been sought by the Economist magazine, CNBC, Bloomberg, Germany's Handelsblatt and FAZ, plus Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore.

See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews.

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