Inflation Cycle Gets a Flat
"In a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower, the primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth."
"When money supply is accelerating, the more speculative/riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble."
"The Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks...tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth...we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle."
"M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economy and markets. On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of February but has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a more 'normal' level of annual growth..."