Facts Change in US Jobs Data
- The Dollar – up.
- Auto sales – up.
- House prices – up.
- Consumer confidence – up.
- Consumer credit – up.
- Stocks – up.
- Oh, and jobs are up too...
"First came the healing in the credit markets in 2009-2010. Then came the healing in the housing market from 2011 to now. And now we have the third act in full swing, which is the healing of the labor market."It's not merely the 195,000-plus in the headline payroll data for June and the upward revisions that really made it a 265,000 reading. It was the fact that the private sector added 202,000 net new jobs and that basically has been the norm now for the past five months."Considering the magnitude of this year's intense fiscal squeeze, only the most ardent pessimist would regard this as anything other than downright impressive. In the leveraged 2002-2007 cycle, the average monthly gain in private payrolls was 136,000. In the tech boom 1992-2000 cycle, the average was 210,000."So I'll leave it up to you to judge how the current pace of 200,000 should be treated in that context. The case for the Fed's above-consensus forecasts to be met this time around, especially as the budget cuts fade in 2014, looks pretty strong to me..."
"You can't cure an alcoholic by buying him another drink. He may get high again. But the problem is still there...and getting worse."
"More than enough?"
"Consumer credit increased in May by the most in a year, a sign low borrowing costs were boosting economic growth although interest rates have since risen."Total consumer installment credit advanced by $19.6 billion to $2.8 trillion, Federal Reserve data showed on Monday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected consumer credit to rise $12.5 billion during the month."Consumer debts grew both for non-revolving credit, which includes loans for cars and college tuition, as well as for revolving facilities like credit cards. Overall consumer debt rose the most since May 2012."