"I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men."
"This is what I fear most today: being bearish and so continuing to not make any money even as the monetary authorities shower us with the ill thought-out generosity of their stance and markets melt up. Our resistance of Fed generosity has been pretty costly for all of us so far. To keep resisting could end up being unforgivably costly."
"Just be long. Pretty much anything."
- In a world drowning in debt, if you must own bonds, own bonds issued by entities that can afford to pay you back;
- In a deleveraging world, favour the currencies of creditor countries over debtors;
- In a world beset by QE, if you must own equities, own equities supported by vast secular tailwinds and compelling valuations (for more on this, see this piece);
- Given the enormous macro uncertainties and entirely justifiable concerns about potential bubbles, diversify more broadly at an asset class level than simply across equity and bond investments; given the danger of central bank money-printing seemingly without limit, currency / inflation insurance should be a component of any balanced portfolio (even if deflation in western economies may be the more plausible immediate threat, as Russell Napier suggests, do we honestly think it won't be met by even more aggressive monetary stimulus from the brain donors at the central banks?);
- Forget conventional benchmarks. Bond indices encourage investors to over-own the most heavily indebted (and therefore objectively least creditworthy) borrowers. Equity benchmarks tend to push investors into owning yesterday's winners – at the high price that their popularity ensures.
"To buy when others are despondently selling and sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest reward."
"It is the long-term investor, he who most promotes the public interest, who will in practice come in for the most criticism. For it is in the essence of his behaviour that he should be eccentric, unconventional and rash in the eyes of average opinion."