Inflation? Patience with Precious
- The CRB commodities price index bounced hard, aided by oil's big spike on the Saudi refinery strike. The moving averages trend down however, so buying commodities was buying into a downtrend. That is usually the stuff of hope and little else.
- Doctor Copper, economic PhD and all, continued to prescribe dis-inflation as higher highs were not made and moving average trends remained down.
- A longer-term view of copper adds no relief to the picture. Indeed, it adds firm evidence that there is no technical reason yet to expect a positive outcome by investing in this premier industrial metal.
- The Metals & Mining ETF was one of only two vehicles I used to trade the bounce, somehow managing to fortuitously sell right at the SMA 200. But was it actually fortuitous or was it just a market participant thinking "profit in hand but an existing downtrend...take the damn profit!"? Oh yes, it was that second thing.