Cheap Gas from the Oil Crash
Friday, 11/14/2014 10:00
Where might the floor – and bounce – come for crude oil prices...?
For the FIRST TIME since 2010,
writes Frank Holmes on his Frank Talk blog at US Global Investors, the average price of a gallon of gas in the United States has fallen below $3, according to AAA's
Daily Fuel Gauge Report.
An estimated $40 billion will be saved this year alone. That's money that can be put toward other expenses – bigger cars, children's education, retirement and investing.
But that discount comes with a price. Cheap gas might help consumers and companies in certain industries, but they're a drag on oil producers, retailers and entire nations. This affects everyone. We live in a global economy, after all.
Since June, crude oil has tumbled 30% to prices we haven't seen in about three years. For the past 20 days and 60 days, it's down about two standard deviations. We can blame this dip on a number of things: geopolitics, the slowing of real GDP growth across the globe, a huge oil surplus here in the US and a strong Dollar. The strength of the Dollar, as you can see, has historically had an inverse relationship with the price of oil.
Recent cuts to our military budget have also affected oil prices. The US military uses more oil than any other institution on earth. Every year it consumes over 100 million barrels to fuel ships, aircraft and other vehicles, but that number is dropping at the same time supply is rising.
Because of the success of unconventional extraction methods such as fracking, the US's production level is at a 25-year high. What would the rate of depletion be if fracking were no longer profitable at $70 or $60 per barrel and production had to be halted? There's no definitive answer to that question because it's not clear how many companies would be affected and to what extent. But what should be clear is that reserves would begin to shrink and we would go back to the days of an overreliance on foreign oil.
Below are the estimated breakeven points for some of the most important shale plays in the US With crude currently priced at slightly under $80 per barrel, many companies, especially those that practice fracking, are starting to feel the pinch. Each play has its own unique set of challenges, one of the most significant being the region's geology. As you can imagine, the harder it is to get the crude out of the ground, the costlier it becomes.
Some analysts believe that approximately a third of all US shale oil producers operate in the red when the price per barrel falls below $80. At $70 a barrel, these producers will need to make drastic changes such as production cuts and layoffs. According to energy research firm
Wood Mackenzie:
"If WTI prices were below $70 for most of 2015, we predict that around 0.6 million b/d [barrels per day] of US tight oil supply growth would be under serious threat by the end of the year – a figure which would continue to increase with low prices."
And if crude were to fall to $60 per barrel? An estimated 80% of US companies that extract tight oil, or shale oil, through fracking would be shut down and all new supply would diminish quickly due to the rapid decline rate.
Already oil producers must contend with the challenge of decreased production. When a well is first drilled, it might begin producing 1,200 barrels a day but, throughout the year, gradually decline between 5 and 20%. By the end of the year, the site is producing only around 100 barrels a day.
Oil producers are often able to recoup exploration and production costs in that timeframe, but then it's necessary to move on to the next drill site.
Unconventional extraction methods accelerate the decline rate. If frackers were forced to halt production now, our reserves would dwindle even more rapidly.
It's critical that America keeps running on this treadmill, so to speak. The results of stopping now would be similar to those of a workout buff who suddenly quits going to the gym. We all know how much harder it is to get back in shape than it is to stay in shape.
Layoffs would especially hurt, given that the tight oil revolution has significantly contributed to the US's economic recovery. Think not just of general oilfield roustabouts but also geoscientists, petroleum engineers and the thousands of other incidental professionals who face losing their jobs if prices continue to slip.
Meanwhile, people continue to have babies, drive their vehicles to work and heat their homes, all of which requires oil.
And there's reason to believe that we'll especially need oil for heating this winter. Already an intense storm even larger than Superstorm Sandy, Typhoon Nuri, is moving west along Alaska's Aleutian Islands and is expected to bring freezing temperatures to much of the northern part of the US. It looks as if winter has arrived earlier than normal this year.
For the time being, however, we can all enjoy lower gas prices this year. With the money saved, we can make better investment decisions. It's as if we received an unexpected tax break. Lower gas prices leads to more consumer spending, which means that luxury goods stocks such as Tiffany & Co., which we own in one of our funds, might benefit.
Speaking of Tiffany & Co., did you know that buying the company's stock in 1987, the year it went public, would have been a better investment than buying an actual diamond?
Many of the world's major oil-producing countries are also feeling the pressure of low prices. Of those shown below, only four – Oman, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – are still able to balance their books with Brent oil flirting with $80 a barrel.
Here's where geopolitics comes into play. Russia is currently the second-largest oil exporter in the world and set to overtake Saudi Arabia very soon. This might help explain why the Saudis aren't in any hurry to limit their own production and support prices.
They have everything to lose and nothing to gain by reducing output. They're in a better position to maintain current levels and still be profitable with $80 oil than Russia, the US and most of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The kingdom has already lowered the price of the oil it exports to the US, a sign that it's aiming to undercut the competition and hang on to its status as the world's top exporter.
As oil and gas policy expert Dr.Kent Moors
argues in a recent article, Saudi Arabia is fighting a losing battle against three fronts: Russia, over control of the Asian market; neighboring OPEC members such as Iraq and Iran; and the US, a market the Saudis don't want to lose to more efficient fracking companies here in America. And, of course, the US and Russia are locked in their own energy skirmish, one that Casey Research's Marin Katusa calls
The Colder War, the title to his latest book.
OPEC officials will be meeting later this month, and hopefully an agreement can be reached. During our webcast last month, Brian Hicks, one of our portfolio managers, emphasized the point that the current price of oil just isn't sustainable:
"I would be surprised if we did not see another production cut if oil remains at these levels. I think that OPEC and the Saudis need to come in and support prices even more so than they already have following the cut in August."
Just as consumers have benefited from sliding oil prices, so too have many companies, including those in the transportation sector. Below you can see that near the start of September, the oil and gas industry decoupled from the transportation sector, composed of airline, trucking, delivery services, railroad and marine transportation companies. Currently there's more than a 35-point spread between the Dow Jones Transportation Average and SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF.
Manufacturers of plastics and synthetic rubber, of which crude is the main component, have also benefited. The US producer price of plastics and rubber products is up $1.20 year-to-date. In 30 days, Cooper Tire & Rubber has shot up 13%, Berry Plastics 14%, Goodyear 15%.
Shell, on the other hand, has given back 5%.
This is precisely why we're attracted to low-cost oil producers. Many, but not all, of them are nimbler and more adaptable in uncertain economic climates than the big names are. We strive to buy only those that have been well screened and fit our models. Learn more about our investment process here at US Global Investors.
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