- We believe the government will adjust policies if they see those adversely affecting votes. This translates into a lowering of the import duty and current requirement to export 20% if imports of gold ahead of the elections.
- India's CAD has already created a Rupee/debt to reserves crisis which is expected to worsen. Expect an international credit crisis to appear in time. The crisis has been slowed through the temporary use of swaps and gold import restrictions. There is no visible sign of effective action to halt the underlying crisis.
- With 25,000 tonnes of gold, India only needs to use a small portion of this to give it time to try to resolve the crisis fundamentally. We cannot see how they will resolve India's economic/monetary crisis, but at least gold will give them time to try.
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JULIAN PHILLIPS – one half of the highly respected team at GoldForecaster.com – began his career in the financial markets back in 1970, when he left the British Army after serving as an Officer in the Light Infantry in Malaya, Mauritius, and Belfast.
First he worked in Timber Management and then joined the London Stock Exchange, qualifying as a member and specializing from the beginning in currencies, gold and the "Dollar Premium". On moving to South Africa, Julian was appointed a macro-economist for the Electricity Supply Commission – guiding currency decisions on the multi-billion foreign Loan Portfolio – before joining Chase Manhattan and the UK Merchant Bank, Hill Samuel, in Johannesburg.
There he specialized in gold, before moving to Capetown, where he established the Fund Management department of the Board of Executors. Julian returned to the "Gold World" over two years ago, contributing his exceptional experience and insights to Global Watch: The Gold Forecaster.
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