No Rubicons Left to Cross

What the Great Financial Stimulus of 2009 might mean for Gold Investment...

THE END OF 2008 is making for a tough market to trade, writes Dan Denning, publisher of the Australian Daily Reckoning. There's no real momentum. No one really knows what's going on.

One day, you're up three percent. The next, down four...whether in Gold, stocks or currencies.

Who knows why these things happen. The story making the rounds in the papers is that traders "cheered" the news that Tim Geithner, President of the New York Fed, would be Barrack Obama's new Treasury Secretary. He'd replace "Bazooka" Hank Paulson. No word on whether Geithner is as good for Goldman as Paulson. But he has been one of the three big wheels behind the various bailout plans engineered by the Wall Street/Treasury Axis.

Geithner is a thus known known, as Donald Rumsfeld might say. And since we've always liked Roman metaphors, we'd say Geithner has been Caesar to Ben Bernanke's Pompey and Paulson's Crassus.

Of course, the first Triumvirate coincided with the beginning of the end of the Roman Republic. It was never official. Just three men calling the shots from behind the scenes. But it certainly marked the start of dictatorship and empire. Crassus was one of Rome's richest men. He put down the slave rebellion led by Spartacus in 74 BC (still one of Kirk Douglass' best performances, if you ask us). But he died fighting the Parthians at the edge of Empire at the Battle of Carrahae in 53 BC.

Pompey lasted longer. He gained fame in Rome after defeating pirates in the Mediterranean in 67 BC. He formed an alliance with Julius Caesar in 59 BC and cemented it by marrying Caesar's daughter, Julia. But when Caesar famously crossed the Rubicon in 49 BC and brought his armies into Italy for civil war, he put Pompey on the run. Caesar chased Pompey all over Italy for a while, eventually defeating him in battle and driving him to Egypt, where he was promptly assassinated by his own friends and beheaded.

Tough place, ancient Rome. But back to the modern world.

There are no financial Rubicons left to cross, not that we can see. They've all been crossed already. And we believe they all lead to inflation in 2009. The New York Times reports that Senator Charles Schumer wants the new stimulus plan to be around $700 billion. That would match the TARP, providing some classical symmetry. Gold Prices must've noticed. After some magnificent weekend rallies, the metal's back up over $850 in the spot market.

By the way, Australian gold production fell by 8% in the third quarter, according to Bloomberg. Australia is the world's third largest gold producer. But high production costs are biting. In the bigger picture demand-side, gold traders and investors realize that the Great Fiscal Stimulation of 2009 is being prepared as we speak. President-elect Obama is conversing with his fiscal and monetary generals. He is marshalling his armies of inflation to go forth and multiply the money supply.

If gold investors are right (and we think they are), the upcoming war on deflation should unleash the epic inflation long expected by pretty everyone who cares to look (except for Bob Prechter and Marty Weiss). Obama and his pro-consuls – Geithner, Summers and Bernanke – are preparing the public for operation GFS 2009.

"We now risk falling into a deflationary spiral that could increase our massive debt even further," the President-elect told Americans in a speech a few weeks back. And he's right. The rising value of cash (in a deflation) makes debt harder to pay back...especially when you plan on adding so much more. That's why all governments everywhere prefer a policy of soft, slow-motion inflation. Obama does not represent change here. Just more of the same borrowing and spending we've had for years.

Inflation gradually erodes the value of accumulated debts by allowing you to pay them off in an increasingly weaker currency. If you're having trouble with that idea, think about this way. Say you borrowed $1,000 twenty years ago. Twenty years ago, $1,000 had more purchasing power than it does today. If you inflate steadily enough, it gets easier to pay back your accumulated debts. One thousand bucks ain't what it used to be.

The United States also enjoys the luxury of paying off its debts in a currency it prints, and which – by convention and through convenience – the world the accepts as the worthiest asset for foreign-currency reserves. So inflating the debt away is easier than, say, defaulting on it. There is no reason to default, in fact, when you can print the currency in which your debts are owed.

This is why we increasingly think inflation is coming. Up until now, the best laid plans of Paulson and his team stayed focused on recapitalizing banks and keeping the financial system from imploding. Deflating financial assets chewed up that new capital, and prevented it from becoming new lending in the economy. But the next step is the reflation of household balance sheets.

Wall Street got its bailout. Now it's Main Street's turn.

Already, Obama's team has indicated it will let the Bush tax cuts expire naturally in 2011, rather than repealing them now. Expect an expanded foreclosure mitigation effort too. And eventually, a new government-backed refinancing plan will be floated to try and put a floor under US house prices.

Yep. 2009 is shaping up to be quite the year if you love big spending government with big plans. Here are a few problems to think about:

1. First, if you're a large owner of US dollars and a major creditor to the US government, and you see that the US won't default on its debt but instead, inflate it away, what do you? What policy levers can you pull to exert influence on your debtor?
2. Second, what happens to the world's stock of available savings when governments start hoovering it all up to be used as fiscal stimulus? Does it crowd out private investment, leading to fewer new jobs, and a prolonged crisis?
3. In other words, is the big government push to "fight the crisis" actually setting it up to be much longer and more painful than it otherwise might?

We'll see soon enough, I believe.