India just bought 200 tonnes of gold from the IMF...
WELL HOW about that! gasps Dan Denning in Melbourne for the Daily Reckoning Australia.
India pipped China at the post to walk away with 200 tonnes of IMF gold. Granted, India had to pay US$6.8 billion for the yellow metal. But with China steadily accumulating gold as a reserve asset (at the household AND central bank level), everyone thought China had this one in the bag.
Something more than meets the eye is going on here. The IMF sale was part of a plan to unload 403.3 tonnes of gold. It's halfway there, and will use the proceeds to fund itself and loans to the developing world (or perhaps Britain and America when they go broke). But what else is going on?
In the past, larges sales of gold – mostly by European central banks – swamped the Gold Price and kept it in check. The European central banks either felt like they had too much gold doing too little work on the balance sheet. Or, they were manipulating the price of gold down by increasing the supply to the market whenever the Gold Price began rendering its verdict on global fiscal and monetary policy.
India's central bank is now the proud owner of 557 tonnes of gold. That gives it the tenth largest gold holdings among central banks. But it probably isn't finished. Gold makes up just 6% of India's foreign exchange reserves. There's plenty of room for that to grow.
But don't forget China. China has $2.3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. And 70% of those reserves – or $1.6 trillion – are in US dollars. China also owns over just a 1,000 tonnes of gold. That makes up less than 2% of China's reserves and makes China the seventh largest holder of above ground gold. In fact, the biggest exchange traded gold fund (New York's SPDR) owns more gold than China. Then comes France, Italy, the IMF, Germany, and the United States to round out the top five.
What this tells you is that China could double (and then double again) its gold reserves and gold would still make up less than 10% of its total forex reserves. Compare that to 66% in Italy, 69% in Germany, 70% in France, and 77% in the United States, according to official numbers. So what's the big deal?
There will always be a threat that European central banks release gold supply on to the market. In fact, European central banks just renewed a five-year agreement (which now includes the IMF) to sell down a maximum of 400 tonnes of gold per year from their holdings. They've agreed, for the third time in 10 years, to disgorge their gold in an orderly fashion.
But it would not surprise us to see the Europeans fail to sell the gold they're allowed to sell under the agreement. Our old desk mate in London, Adrian Ash (now with BullionVault) is just back from the London Bullion Market Association's annual meeting, this year in Edinburgh, and word is that European Central Bank official Paul Mercier reckons official holders of gold will, in total, "no longer be net sellers of gold."
As we predicted earlier this year, the European central banks would rather hoard their gold than sell it in a rising market. There may be a price at which they do sell it, in order to pay down sovereign debts. But psychologically, the fact that central banks want to own gold and not sell it is pretty important.
Also, the news from New Delhi shows you how the balance of economic power in the world has shifted East. True, the European banks can still dump gold on to the market to drown the price. But between the ETFs, central bank buyers in India and China, and the average man on the street in Beijing, Mumbai, and elsewhere, there are more buyers of gold now than sellers.
And if we were right yesterday that the Global Financial Crisis is slowly morphing into a sovereign debt crisis, then the case for gold gets that much stronger. This explains why Gold Futures were up by nearly 3% overnight and old yeller hit a new high at $1,084.90 an ounce.
The only worry? So many hedge fund managers and pundits are singing the same tune: long gold and short US Treasuries. The bond bubble could go on much longer than anyone expects. And when so many people agree on something, none of them are usually right. As a contrarian, you'd be worried about becoming a victim right about now. Whereas in the long term, the end of the Super Cycle in fiat money results in the remonetization of gold. That is what you're seeing now. And it's probably what you'll see for a few more years.
It also ought to benefit other precious metals, and of course, precious metals mining shares.
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