Consciously Shifting to Precious Metals
Wednesday, 9/24/2014 19:36
Resource-stock fund manager explains his current outlook and strategy...
JASON MAYER joined Sprott Asset Management LP in November 2012 with more than 10 years of investment industry experience as lead portfolio manager on a number of funds with a focus on growth-oriented resource equities.
Now Mayer tells
The Gold Report's sister title,
The Mining Report, how miners are having a tough time getting funded, and although Canadian oil and gas has performed well over the last few quarters, some companies might be overvalued...
The Mining Report: In February, you gave a speech at The Vancouver Club that acknowledged the impact of investor fatigue on the junior mining equity space. Seven months later, are investors starting to get excited again about the space?
Jason Mayer: Investors have been reacting in fits and starts, and everyone is still very cautious. I track a number of funds, and I watch how they perform on a day-to-day basis. What I have found interesting is that a number of resource funds in Canada continue to be underweight, particularly in gold equities. I notice they underperform on days that gold stocks have good moves. The generalists out there among the institutional money have little to no presence in various gold equities. For the most part, people have abandoned the space.
TMR: What will it take to get them excited again?
Jason Mayer: They'll want to see some upward trajectory. I don't know if it's going to be a couple of data points that confirm the arrival of an inflationary environment, or the cessation of this disinflationary environment that we've been in since 2009, but people would have to feel comfortable that the gold price isn't going to resume the decline it experienced in 2013. There are still a number of analysts and commentators out there who are calling for gold in the $800-1000 per ounce range.
TMR: Is it the seemingly never-ending rise of the blue chip stocks that makes people less likely to look at the juniors, whether energy or precious metals?
Jason Mayer: I don't know how much it has to do with that, but, certainly, the very strong US Dollar is influencing the gold price and precious metal equities. Everyone has their own opinion on what drives gold. Mine is pretty simple. I look at it as a currency investors can choose from among a number of currencies worldwide, the US Dollar being the primary driver of gold, because gold is typically quoted in US Dollars. The strength of the US Dollar has led people to doubt the need to hold either gold or gold-related equities in their portfolios.
TMR: What about the impact on energy stocks?
Jason Mayer: We've had a pretty good run for a number of the energy companies here in Canada. In fact, our energy fund that is run by Eric Nuttall is up 40+%. That is an overall reflection of how the energy equities have done, both the exploration and production (E&P) companies and the service companies.
TMR: The lack of excitement has also impacted financing. You estimated that in 2011, miners raised $1 billion in flow-through funds, and in 2012, that number was down to $700 million. In 2013, it was $350m. So far this year, it is even 15% lower than that. Why has it been so hard to raise money right now?
Jason Mayer: When we look at it over a multiyear horizon, we're at a 10-year low. The companies that have been hit the hardest are the miners. They're the ones that have seen the appetite for flow-through decrease the most, certainly much more than energy companies, where the appetite for flow-through continues to remain pretty healthy.
The companies that have very high-quality projects have been able to access the capital markets and issue equity. In some cases, they have turned to royalties and, in very rare cases, private equity, but for the most part, the juniors are very challenged, especially the exploration companies. They're hanging on by a thread. Essentially, a lot of their expenditures are really on just keeping the lights on, so they're no longer advancing projects because the capital is just not available to them.
TMR: Will this lack of capital lead to more mergers and acquisitions?
Jason Mayer: I thought that would have happened by now. But that is the logical conclusion. There are two major impediments. In many cases, we see management teams that are entrenched – just there to collect a salary and a bonus. The second issue is with the acquirers, especially the majors. These are companies that went on spending sprees in 2009 and 2010. Although there are a number of very solid acquisition opportunities in this environment, some of these companies are gun shy because of their experience over the past couple of years, and support among the shareholder base can also be quite tentative.
TMR: You manage the Sprott Flow-Through Limited Partnership and the Sprott Resource Class Fund. The 2014 $11.7m Flow-Through L.P. is 90% in cash, correct?
Jason Mayer: The 2014 fund initially raised north of $17m. It's a process of identifying candidates, engaging them to issue flow-through and then actually consummating the transaction. So, in fact, right now, I'm 100% invested – a bit of an update, which the public documents don't reflect at the current time. I am approximately 60% invested in energy names, 40% in mining.
TMR: You mentioned that the Sprott Flow-Through L.P. is 60% in energy. The Sprott Resource Class Fund flipped, from 56% energy and 42% minerals to 54% minerals and 46% energy. The energy and non-energy percentages flipped. Was that a conscious shift or a result of changes in equity valuations?
Jason Mayer: That was a conscious shift. I started reducing my exposure to Canadian energy names. It was a function of both profit-taking and repositioning. Some of these companies' valuation multiples had expanded quite dramatically. I took some profits and deployed a significant portion of that into some gold-weighted equities.
TMR: What are your projections for oil and gas prices?
Jason Mayer: Gas is a tough one to call, but I think it will bounce around $3-4 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). The upside will be predicated on very cold weather, which will drive additional demand. Without that, it's going to be mired in a $3-4/Mcf trading environment. The part of the equation that's a little more transparent is the supply side. The bottom line is North American natural gas production continues to hit record highs. It's going to continue to hit record highs based on a number of projects that are in the process of being commissioned and developed. That's going to bring new gas to market. A lot of this new gas that's coming onstream is highly economic, so even at $3/Mcf gas, the operators of these projects are going to continue to drill.
The wild card is the demand side of the equation. There are some longer-term developments that are going to be bullish for demand, such as gas-fired electrical generation, utilizing natural gas as a transportation fuel and liquefied natural gas exports. The problem is that these are very long-dated and uncertain demand initiatives. Because of that uncertainty, I don't want to invest now based only on whether I think it's going to be a cold winter or not.
TMR: That makes sense.
Jason Mayer: For oil prices, I'm expecting $90-110 per barrel. The Brent benchmark is what we use. I think the demand backdrop is pretty positive. China seems to be back on track. There was a lot of concern over the past few months on where its economy was going. It looks as if the Chinese central planning authorities are committed to a 7.5% growth target, and its most recent gross domestic product number was just that.
In the US, the numbers have been just spectacular. The economy appears to be picking up speed and momentum, whether you're looking at manufacturing activity, employment figures or job openings. There really don't seem to be many negative data points right now. The one area of concern is the European Union. It looked as if it was coming out of its recession, and then it had a bit of a hiccup. The whole Russia/Ukraine situation could have an impact. But generally, demand is pretty solid.
On the supply side, it just costs a lot of money to produce oil. Some 96% of the supply growth outside of Opec in 2013 came from the US If you're looking at the US full-cycle costs, they're about $60 per barrel. You really need $70-80 a barrel as an absolute floor to ensure that the US will continue to drill.
TMR: Do you see energy services as a less volatile way to leverage the energy space?
Jason Mayer: The short answer is no. It's a very volatile group. There are a lot of different specialties within the energy services, so it's really dependent on which particular area you're talking about. But if you want to get leverage to the energy space through services, then you're probably buying something that is quite leveraged to the energy space and will do very well if the whole space does well, but it's a double-edged sword. That leverage can also work against you if things don't work out according to plan.
Earlier this year, I pared back some of my services holdings; I felt that these companies really got ahead of themselves. Personally, if I want that torque and leverage to energy, I'll just play the E&P companies.
TMR: You mentioned that you are consciously shifting to the materials companies, the precious metals. What number are you using for gold and silver prices in your estimates? What companies are you picking up?
Jason Mayer: I'm using around $1300 per ounce. For the most part, my focus is on companies that are all-in cash flow positive. To try to capture the full picture, I like to look at the margin after adjusting not only for cash costs but also for royalties, taxes, general and administrative expenses and sustaining capital. If the gold price is under pressure, I try to pick companies that have the best chance of surviving if things get ugly.
TMR: Do you have any words of wisdom for investors who are feeling stock fatigue right now from the resource space?
Jason Mayer: I think the biggest thing you need to have is conviction and fortitude when a lot of these names are volatile, and try to keep your wits about you. Try not to trade based on emotion; trade based on your logic and thought processes. If your logic has not changed, stick to the tune.
TMR: Thank you for talking with us today.
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