Risk of Fresh US-Iran Conflict Hits Comex Gold and Silver Bulls

SILVER and GOLD PRICES fell from one-month highs on Monday, hitting bullish speculators in Comex futures and options as crude oil jumped and the US Dollar rose amid the threat of fresh conflict between the USA and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, writes Atsuko Whitehouse at BullionVault.

With the fragile two-week ceasefire set to expire tomorrow and Tehran refusing to send negotiators to peace talks in Pakistan after the US attacked an Iranian cargo ship, crude oil prices jumped as much as 6% this morning.

With gold and silver falling back, that meant Brent crude regained almost all of Friday's losses, made after Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz open to all shipping − a position it then reversed at the weekend as US President Donald Trump repeated that Washington's forces continue to blockade all shipping to and from Iran.

"Dominant risk this week remains more US-Iran negotiations," says Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at Swiss bullion refining and finance group MKS Pamp.

"The near-term direction for gold depends on broader de-escalation in the Middle East," agrees comment from London-based bullion giant HSBC.

"However, the recent ceasefire has shown that gold can rebound quickly as markets stabilise."

Latest data show hedge funds and other leveraged speculators in Comex gold futures and options increasing their net bullish positions by 7.3% as a group in the week ending last Tuesday, when prices traded back above $4800 per Troy ounce and analysts agreed that gold appeared to be "developing some resilience".

That marked the Managed Money's fastest percentage jump in net bullish betting in 3 months and the largest net bullish gold position in a month. But it remained 20.5% below the one-year average by notional weight, and also 14.0% below the 5-year average.

"We maintain a bullish view on gold over the medium-to-long term," says HSBC, citing elevated geopolitical risk, rising fiscal deficits and continued central bank diversification as supportive factors.

"Gold remains a safe haven despite 2026 price action," echoes German refining group Heraeus in its latest report.

Spot gold prices fell as much as 1.4% to $4762 early Monday before paring nearly half those losses by London lunchtime as Asia-Pacific stock markets closed mostly higher while European bourses fell, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 down more than 1.1%.

Silver − primarily an industrial metal that derives nearly 60% of its annual demand from industrial uses − fell as much as 2.7% to $78.65 per ounce, before also paring half of those losses.

As with gold, silver's speculative positioning also rebounded last week as hopes grew for a US-Iran resolution according to data from US regulators the CFTC.

The Managed Money category expanded its net bullish betting on US Comex silver futures and options by more than 1/10th as prices rallied above $79 per Troy ounce.

Last week's growth took the speculative net long position in silver futures and options to its largest by notional weight since end-January, when the silver price spiked to all-time records at $120 per Troy ounce.

Having declared on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was reopened for shipping, Iran reportedly fired on commercial vessels Sunday after declaring it shut again.

News reports say the Islamic Republic will not attend a second round of talks in Islamabad while the US blockade remains in force, but Washington is still planning to send a delegation led by Vice President JD Vance.

Gold priced in Euros and UK Pounds also dropped Monday, down as much as 1.7% to €4036 and £3514 per ounce respectively after reaching 7-session highs last Friday.

"This volatility is likely to last for some time," says the weekly note from refiners Heraeus.

"But in the long run gold will retain its fundamental attraction as a way to preserve purchasing power."