Gold News

2022: Still Golden

Gold following a logical path...

GOLD has done nothing unusual and in fact it has done as would normally be expected, writes Gary Tanashian in his Notes from the Rabbit Hole.

In February it began to rally out of the base on the daily (futures) chart below. Driven by war (easy on the 'war, terror and pestilence!' bull rationales, dear gold bugs) and inflation hype, kneejerkers and momos (momentum players) quickly jumped on pushing gold to an overbought high on March 8.

The resulting correction is normal and it is healthy. Momos are not allowed to participate in a real gold bull (at least not until later when the bull is obviously blowing off).

As you can see on the chart, gold found support to possibly contain the downside. However, as also noted in the update to NFTRH subscribers, better support is below at and around $1834 and the 200-day moving average.

Still below short-term resistance, that lower support is still well in play at this time.

This technical picture of a correction is within a fully intact big picture situation. The monthly chart's bullish Cup is still in Handle breakout mode and will remain so even if/as gold drops to our main support area as noted above.

The supportive EMA 20 is also rising to that junction, which includes the handle breakout point (dashed line) as well. It's not only normal, it is a near perfect picture if, like me, you would want to see gold unload the inflationists and momos before the next leg up.

Side note: As I continually stress, gold can do well in an inflationary environment, but it will do relatively worse than cyclical commodities if said inflation continues to work toward a positive economic cycle. The cycle inflated by the Fed and its fellow central banks out of the 2020 pandemic disaster has been cyclical, like it or not. But I think that is changing in 2022, either to a more virulent and economically corrosive Stagflation or more likely in my opinion, a disinflationary or deflationary event of some kind.

As for the gold miners, please remember that they fundamentally leverage the gold price on the macro. When gold is declining vs. gold mining cost inputs (as it generally has been since we noted the need for a correction in mid-2020) the sector's fundamentals are pressured (eg, Gold/Oil ratio is in the tank).

Certain macro indicators are, however, more constructive. But today let's remember that it is a time to unload the momos in preparation for another leg up, possibly coinciding with gold's seasonal turn to positive later this summer.

Contrary to the cheerleaders' view, it's not always a good time to buy gold, and it's often not a good time to buy the miners.

But to this point in 2022 I see no reason to stow away my own bigger picture pom poms. The picture is on track and waiting for a nice combination of sector/macro fundamentals and a resumption of the bullish big picture technicals.

Gary Tanashian successfully owned and operated a progressive medical component manufacturing company for 21 years, through various economic cycles. This experience gave Gary an understanding of and appreciation for global macroeconomics as it relates to individual markets and sectors. Along the way, Gary developed an almost geek-like interest in technical analysis (TA), to add to a long-time interest in human psychology. Various unique macro market ratio indicators were also added to the mix, with the result being a financial market newsletter, Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH) that combines these attributes.

See the full archive of Gary Tanashian.

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