- First, it is unlikely that economic growth will reach the levels needed to power the global economy back to health, at least in the near future;
- Second, inflation levels will remain low with the risk of disinflation or deflation being ever present;
- Third, sovereign debt problems in developed countries as well as a number of emerging markets will remain an important concern;
- Fourth, problems in emerging markets will continue. Overall growth will moderate and several countries may experience debt crises of different magnitude. This will drag down global growth and affect the chance of recovery in developed countries;
- Fifth, the impotence of policy makers and the inadequacies of available policy options will become increasingly evident. The recent emphasis on forward guidance (which can be translated as merely a new term for the age old practice of 'jawboning') is reminiscent of Robin Williams' observation about the weapons available to an unarmed English policeman: "Stop or I will shout 'Stop!' again";
- Sixth, the economic problems will increasingly manifest themselves in social and political problems, both domestic and internationally.
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