The headlines coming out of Cyprus are mainly just noise...
WE SHOULD all know by now that these negative macro events, trumpeted so pervasively in the media, are little more than distractions to normal market management, writes Gary Tanshian in his Notes from the Rabbit Hole.
The Cyprus hype is in reality just another manifestation of hazards hard-wired into the global financial system. These hazards are created by policies that rely on credit (and debt) as economic fundamentals. In the short-term, issues like Cyprus's proposed confiscation of depositors' funds are just games in the casino.
We should know by now that bad policy (and resulting hazard) does not equal 'bear market' over intermediate term cycles and alarming macro events do not always equal 'stocks going down' in the short-term. In 2012, the problems throughout the Eurozone set the sentiment backdrop up nicely and relief after the Fiscal Cliff Kabuki Dance in Washington launched the hard up phase that is now registering targets.
That is what is important; the market is now approaching a pivot point that will decide between bull continuation and a bear cycle. The bull market will die of its own internals when enough people have chased it and enough of the public's money (scared into bonds, CDs and money markets in 2008) comes back into stocks. The 'Great Rotation' (out of bonds and into stocks) sounds like a big topping story. The Cyprus noise does not. It is why I have been sarcastically writing "Cyprus… Bullish!" at the site lately.
The fix has been in from a sentiment standpoint (sentiment has backed off from strongly over bullish) and while I believe the US and global markets are now at high risk, I also believe that 'the' bull killing event is likely to approach silently. It may already be in progress or it may be months out. But Cyprus probably ain't it.
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