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America's Pig Ugly Economy

Oink! Oink! Standard & Poor's just raised its outlook for the US credit rating...
 
IF YOU'RE not familiar with the term "putting lipstick on a pig," well I think there is an apt example at play again from the people who seem to be experts at applying the lipstick, writes Martin Hutchinson for Money Morning.
 
Standard and Poor's this week raised the outlook for the US credit rating from "negative" to "stable," citing reduced fiscal risks and policymakers' willingness to sustain growth. 
 
Oink. Oink. 
 
There's another recession wave coming, and the US economy is ill-prepared to take the hit. Just look at the business cycle.
I have always been surprised by commentators' failure in their budget predictions to take account of the business cycle. 
 
In 2001, the Bush administration forecast continued budget surpluses, and the major media agreed with it. Yet there was no "there" there. Like everyone else, I could see we had entered a recession, yet nobody was taking account of it. 
 
I stuck my neck out in late spring, and forecast a deficit of $200 billion for the year to September 2002. I was first to forecast a deficit – and way short of the $317 billion deficit that actually occurred.
 
This time around, Standard and Poor's optimism focused on the improvements in the budget picture caused by two factors: the restoration of the payroll tax and modest upper-bracket tax increases of January, and the "sequester" spending cuts in March. 
 
The sequester in particular was a brilliant piece of policy; it appears to have had almost no effect on the operations of government (thus proving there was massive bloat) and has produced the first real cuts in spending since the 1990s. 
 
As a result, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the deficit for the year to September 2013 is a mere $642 billion, or 4.0% of GDP.
 
That doesn't sound too worrying. Unfortunately, two special factors are holding it down and are likely to reverse. First, Social Security and Medicare payments are likely to increase rapidly as the Baby Boomers retire in greater numbers. 
 
Second, Ben Bernanke is buying $85 billion of government and agency debt monthly – that's over $1 trillion a year. With a deficit of only $642 billion, that's really jamming interest rates to the floor.
 
Now interest rates are showing signs of increasing, and by late 2014 they are likely to have risen close to their long-term averages of 2-3% above the rate of inflation, or say 5% on the 10-year bond.
 
That will have two effects. First, it will push the US economy into renewed recession. Second, it will raise the cost of financing the Treasury. Currently, interest outlays are only 1.4% of GDP, based on debt held by the public of 72% of GDP – an interest rate of less than 2%. 
 
If interest rates go to 5%, that cost can be expected to double, to around 3% of GDP. And that's not a good thing at all.
Let's assume President Barack Obama is moderately successful at holding spending in check, and that the Siren Song of more wasted "stimulus" spending when the recession hits are avoided. 
 
We can then forecast an increase in spending of about 6% of GDP, as in 2000-03, assuming a somewhat deeper recession than that mild one but better spending control than under the spendthrift George W. Bush. Add the 1.5% of GDP from extra interest payments, and you have a total deficit increase of 7.5% of GDP, giving a 2015 or 2016 deficit of 11.5% of GDP, or about $2 trillion.
 
Given the oncoming train of higher Social Security and Medicare, that's enough to turn us into Greece. Debt would be increasing uncontrollably, while the politicians would be unable to bring the deficit back under control. 
 
Add the damaging effect on the US workforce of another recession that started from an unemployment rate of 14% or more, as measured by the broad U6 measure, and default on US Treasuries appears as likely as not. After all, there's no Germany to bail us out.

Now a contributing editor to both the Money Map Report and Money Morning, the much-respected free daily advisory service, Martin Hutchinson is an investment banker with more than 25 years’ experience. A graduate of Cambridge and Harvard universities, he moved from working on Wall Street and in the City, as well as in Spain and South Korea, to helping the governments of Bulgaria, Croatia and Macedonia establish their Treasury bond markets in the late '90s. Business and Economics Editor at United Press International from 2000-4, and a BreakingViews editor since 2006, Hutchinson is also author of the closely-followed Bear's Lair column at the Prudent Bear website.

See full archive of Martin Hutchinson.

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