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Chasing the Moon

Progress looks to be reaching its end...

THE PRESS reports mixed financial news, writes Bill Bonner in his Diary of a Rogue Economist.

House sales, oil, unemployment figures...up, down...the news leaves investors puzzled.

But amid the confusing noise was the sound of an alarm:

"Fall in US productivity sparks fears of populist backlash as wages stagnate," says a lumbering headline in the Financial Times.

Most financial news stories are remarkably free from any informational content. Not this one. The headline alone practically bursts at the seams with it.

First: (and here we pause, briefly, to thank the jackasses running the US economy)...For the first time in more than three decades, productivity is falling. The Conference Board estimates the rate of productivity growth in the US in 2016 at MINUS 0.2%.

This means that real wealth is walking backward...Our economy is getting poorer...and less productive.

What a remarkable achievement – reducing the value of human labor, in the world's most advanced economy, after at least 200 years of vigorous growth!

We've explained in these Diary entries...The feds and Wall Street colluded to replace precious real savings with unlimited phony savings (credit-backed money). But when something is available in unlimited quantities, people squander it.

Instead, they squander it on share buybacks...speculation...zombie giveaways...crony contracts...

Real savings, capital formation, and investment – the kind that you need to boost productivity – go down.

Stanley Druckenmiller:

"While the debt in the 1990s financed the construction of the Internet, most of the debt today has been used for financial engineering, not productive investments. Last year, buybacks and M&A were $2 trillion. All R&D and office equipment spending was $1.8 trillion. And the reckless behavior has grown in a non-linear fashion after eight years of free money."

Our heart skips a beat. At the end of the day, all we have is time. Twenty-four hours in a day. Seven days in a week. Time is not credit. You can't stretch it. You can't "stimulate" it...or create more of it. That's all there is.

You could double the PhDs at the Fed. You could double the number of patents or the stock buybacks and high tech IPOs...still, the earth would spin at the exact same rate, and the sun would still come up earlier than you would probably like tomorrow.

Time is beyond the control of the Deep State, Congress, or the NSA.

The only hope of material progress is to get more output out of each unit of time. There's no other way.

And if you can't do that, you are dead in the water. If you get less output per unit of are doomed to poverty.

That's why this is the most important financial story you are likely to see this month...maybe this year...and maybe in your lifetime.

Material progress has come to an end...and if this trend continues, we will eventually be crawling around on all fours and howling at the moon.

Not only that, our system of government is doomed, too. And our money...

We'll take this up next week, but our advanced democracies depend on making promises now...and making good on them later.

This can only be done with additional output! No productivity increases (or worse, falling productivity), and the jig is up.

Why the calamitous drop in productivity? What does it mean for the future? The FT doesn't seem to care. Instead, it draws our attention to the "populist backlash" that worked the paper's Elitist-in-Chief, Martin Wolf, into such a lather earlier in the week.

All around the world, voters are losing faith in the elite. Austria was the latest country to give evidence of it, with the "populist" candidate, Norbert Hofer, barely defeated by the mainstream man.

And in the US, the latest polls show Hillary and Donald running neck and neck. Wolf considers this kind of "populism" a disease.

But it is not populism that infected productivity and endangered Western Civilization. It is the cancerous programs of the Deep State's insiders.

"Wages stagnate," continues the headline. That is the news we reported yesterday...the study of the Levy Institute, showing that for 9 out of 10 Americans, we have suffered FOUR LOST DECADES since the '70s. That is, their time is worth no more today than it was when the first astronauts landed on the moon.

In 1969, the US could send men to the moon and bring them back. Now with productivity falling, the moon moves farther away.

New York Times best-selling finance author Bill Bonner founded The Agora, a worldwide community for private researchers and publishers, in 1979. Financial analysts within the group exposed and predicted some of the world's biggest shifts since, starting with the fall of the Soviet Union back in the late 1980s, to the collapse of the Dot Com (2000) and then mortgage finance (2008) bubbles, and the election of President Trump (2016). Sharing his personal thoughts and opinions each day from 1999 in the globally successful Daily Reckoning and then his Diary of a Rogue Economist, Bonner now makes his views and ideas available alongside analysis from a small hand-picked team of specialists through Bonner Private Research.

See full archive of Bill Bonner articles

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