ChatGPT vs Gemini Gold Price Predictions 2024
Tuesday, 9/03/2024 15:35
Will human forecasts or AI predictions prove most accurate for precious metals in 2024...?
GOLD had a strong end to 2023 and BullionVault users were also bullish for this year, with over 2,000 survey respondents on average predicting a price rise to $2342 price per Troy ounce by the end of 2024.
With gold racing higher already this year following that bullish price forecast, it got us thinking.
Like gold, global stock markets have also risen sharply in 2023 and now hit new all-time highs in 2024, led by shares related to artificial intelligence such as Nvidia. So, what do some of the world’s most popular AI tools (ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini) think of gold and the wider bullion market this year?
On the 23 February 2024, we asked the two natural language processing tools to predict the prices of gold, silver, platinum and palladium over the next 4 quarters. We could then compare those AI forecasts against the very human forecasts from BullionVault users, as well as from professional forecasters at bullion banks, brokerages and specialist consultancies.
Below, we've compiled 2024 price predictions from the AI tools, BullionVault's investor community, professional gold market commentators, and the actual quarterly price outcomes, which we'll update as the year unfolds.
Who will prove to be the most accurate forecaster at the end of 2024: human investors, human experts, or AI machines?
Gold price predictions
| Tool | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | $1,700 - $2,200 | $1,700 - $2,250 | $1,700 - $2,300 | $1,750 - $2,350 |
| Gemini | $2,120 - $2,344 | $2,250 - $2,350 | $2,400 - $2,600 | $2,500 - $2,800 |
| BV users | $2,342 | |||
| LBMA analysts' forecasts | $2,059 | |||
| Actual Ave. Gold Price | $2,071.76 | $2,337.99 | $2,431.64* |
* Quarter-to-date (QTD)
Last updated on 3 September 2024. Data for 31 August 2024. Source: ChatGPT, Gemini and LBMA
Clearly, ChatGPT and Google's Gemini are far more bullish on gold than BullionVault users or the
LBMA's panel of analysts, who were asked to forecast gold's annual average price across the year.
Our latest survey of 2,002 precious-metal investors (who say they typically hold 85% of their investable wealth in other assets) found that a quarter (25.0%) believed monetary policy such as interest rates and quantitative easing or tightening would have the greatest impact on gold prices from January to the end of December 2024. This was closely followed by geopolitics and government spending (22.0% and 20.8% respectively).
Will that prove to be useful insight this year? Twice a year we
survey investors using BullionVault for their opinions on where precious metals prices will be in 12-months' time and what factors will have the biggest impact on those prices. In December 2022, when gold was trading at $1800 per ounce our survey respondents predicted that the price would reach $2012 twelve months later. Not too bad when you consider the gold price averaged $2029 for the month last December.
Silver price predictions
| Tool | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | $20 - $30 | $20 - $30 | $20 - $32 | $21 - $33 |
| Gemini | $25 - $30 | $28 - $32 | $30 - $35 | $35 - $40 |
| BullionVault users | $29 | |||
| LBMA analysts' forecasts | $24.80 | |||
| Actual Ave. Silver Price | $23.36 | $28.86 | $29.13* |
* Quarter-to-date (QTD)
Last updated on 3 September 2024. Data for 31 August 2024. Source: ChatGPT, Gemini and LBMA
Once again, AI is predicting significant rises in the silver price by the end of 2024, with ChatGPT forecasting a potential high for silver of $40 per ounce, falling someway short of the all-time high of $49.45 reached in 1980.
Platinum price predictions
| Tool | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | $850 - $1,200 | $850 - $1,250 | $850 - $1,300 | $860 - $1,350 |
| Gemini | $930 -$1,000 | $875 - $950 | $875 - $975 | $900 - $1,050 |
| BullionVault users | $1,010 | |||
| LBMA analysts' forecasts | $1,015 | |||
| Actual Ave. Platinum Price | $909.63 | $981.20 | $962.52* |
* Quarter-to-date (QTD)
Last updated on 3 September 2024. Data for 31 August 2024. Source: ChatGPT, Gemini and LBMA
Unlike its prediction for gold, Gemini's platinum price forecast (based on Q1 prediction data vs actuals) seems a little more conservative and less bullish. However, ChatGPT 'thinks' that platinum prices could go significantly higher.
Palladium price predictions
| Tool | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | $1,900 - $2,500 | $1,900 - $2,550 | $1,900 - $2,600 | $1,950 - $2,650 |
| Gemini | $650 - $800 | $700 - $825 | $700 - $850 | $750 - $900 |
| BullionVault users | $1,130 | |||
| LBMA analysts' forecasts | $1,060 | |||
| Actual Ave. Palladium Price | $977.84 | $971.86 | $946.07* |
* Quarter-to-date (QTD)
Last updated on 3 September 2024. Data for 31 August 2024. Source: ChatGPT, Gemini and LBMA
Does ChatGPT know something that the LBMA's 25 expert analysts do not? Or is there simply not enough data on the internet regarding palladium for our two AI tools to predict such widely different prices?
Time will tell which of these two forecasts will be most accurate and how they will compare to the forecast originating from two human based sources.
2023 precious metal prices versus 2024 forecasts
| Metal | 2023 average price (LBMA) | BullionVault users' prediction for 2024 | LBMA analysts' forecast for 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $1,940 | $2,342 | $2,059 |
| Silver | $23.35 | $29.00 | $24.80 |
| Platinum | $965 | $1,010 | $1,015 |
| Palladium | $1,337 | $1,130 | $1,060 |
It is worth noting that these predictions from both ChatGPT and Gemini are based on the individual tool’s analysis of pre-existing market condition data and forecasts from other parties, they are certainly not set in stone.
Over 2024, we will revisit the predictions on a quarterly basis and measure them against the actual performance of the metals, offering insight into the abilities of both AI tools to forecast precious metal prices.
