Turn the Page on Bubble and Bust
"In the US, open-ended QE has had minimal impact on the unemployment rate, while exerting dramatic effects on stock prices, corporate debt issuance (especially riskier debt) and home prices (particularly at the upper-end). Going on five years of near-zero short-term rates and bond market interventions have coerced an unprecedented shift of saver assets from the safety of 'money' to the risk market wolves. The belief that the Federal Reserve and global central banks would continue to backstop risk markets has been fundamental to epic market mispricing..."As an analyst of Bubbles, I readily admit it is impossible to accurately predict the timing of their demise. Even in hindsight, I have no idea why technology stocks put in Bubble highs in March of 2000. It's not clear why stocks peaked again when they did in 2007. It's never been clear to me why the US equities Bubble cracked when it did in late-1929. But all those major market tops were put in after speculative market melt-ups pushed the divergence between inflated securities price Bubbles and deteriorating fundamentals to precarious extremes. And all three speculative melt-ups were fueled in part by powerful short squeezes, squeezes made possible by trader shorting securities in response to deteriorating fundamental backdrops. A similar environment exists for a major top in 2013."
"All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone."