Gold, Silver: 2025 In Review

A terrible year for most things except precious...

2025 a bad year in many ways except investment (IMO & speaking personally), writes Gary Tanashian in his Notes from the Rabbit Hole.

A silver (and gold) lining was, of course, the precious metals sector for we who had anticipated the bull. Gold led, the rest of the precious metals complex, and eventually broader markets, followed.

2026? It can't get any worse socio-politically, and pending a potential Q1/H1 liquidity issue, could be just as good investment-wise.

With the Fed already on a rate cutting regimen and positioned for some form of QE (as it plans to buy short-term Treasuries and let MBS roll off the books), and Trump soon to tap a yes-man to chair the Fed, the inflation problem they appear to want to summon should lift a wider segment of the broad commodity and resources sectors.

The above would assume either no recession in 2026 or a quick one (in line with our "interim liquidity event" theory that could come at the hands of a Yen Carry implosion and/or a counter-trend USD rally and/or rebound in the Gold/Silver ratio) that would actually give license to the Trump administration to go balls out inflationary in its fiscal policies.

They've already proven not to be inflation fighters, and I am not talking about tariffs. I am talking about a man badgering the Fed chief to cut rates (i.e. increase inflationary inputs), seemingly since time immemorial. I am talking about certain aspects of the big, beautiful spending bill.

With these inputs set in stone, 2026 looks to either feature cyclical inflation (inflation that works to keep the economy in growth mode) as in Q3, 2020 forward, or Stagflation, which would see a struggling economy, but higher prices of important goods and some services. I lean "Stag".

There are no more important "goods" than the critical minerals and materials that bulled in 2025, amid global trade tensions and related asset grabs. This is especially so with the expansion of AI (it's a bubble in many respects, but it is also real) and all those data centers being built to support it.

Gold led the 2025 festivities, breaking upward in January after a 2.5-month long consolidation. In the spring, as silver was blowing off to the downside in relation to gold, we (NFTRH) anticipated a reversal to the upside. And boy did we get one!

It was gold, then the gold miners and then finally, silver.

Fast forward to today, a day after CME Group predictably raised margin requirements on silver and gold (again), after the hype, leverage and momentum built up in the silver price, right into year-end.

Despite positive macro-fundamentals, the short-term is subject to volatility and folks, if you believe that a vast majority of those in the silver market – despite physical holders/stackers – are healthy participants, you might want to think again. No market goes this hard without attracting MOMOs, FOMOs and players of all kinds.

The 2025 precious metals story is typical, in that it was led by gold, then the miners kicked in, and then silver took over and cleared the tracks for a major run, fueled by momentum and FOMO.

Now? With the understanding that silver now has big picture macro backing, price and short-term activity are one thing, while long-term macro-fundamentals are another.

Pending any H1, 2026 market disturbance (perhaps after a typically positive January) that may erupt, I expect critical commodities and their producers/explorers to bull once again, as part of the broader inflation trades.

It is going to be another long and potentially fruitful year. I can live without the levels of political and social angst that 2025 saw. But as with the markets, we'll take that week-to-week, month-to-month just as we do the markets. I expect bull and bear phases across most markets.

Positive January, market liquidity problems well within H1, 2026. Then renewed inflation trades, including the precious metals and critical commodities that bulled so well in 2025. Socially and politically, I don't think it can get much worse. Indeed, from a US perspective, I see a country entering the very early stages of healing itself. Social "green shoots", if you will. Barely visible ones.

Stock markets were not within the scope of this article. But as we proceed into 2026, I would be careful about a perma-bear orientation. Stocks could go sideways or even rally, after all, in this new macro (in some ways similar to the 1970s macro). But they may continue to tank in "real" gold-adjusted terms.

Happy New Year.