BullionVault Daily Update
Monday, 14 December
In the markets this morning... • Gold holds $1070 as stock markets flip before US Fed on Weds... • Commodities sink again, crude oil flirts with 2008 crash lows... • Silver hits new 6-year low despite 'solar positive' UN deal... • Bitcoin? Even $BTC 'inventor' prefers to own gold instead of bytes... • Treasure of the week: Anglo-Viking hoard, Stalinist politics... For up-to-the-minute live spot gold and silver prices use the BullionVault chart Silver Hits New 6-Year Low Before US Fed from Adrian Ash Head of Research, BullionVault SO SHOULD you invest in gold or silver as 2015 coughs its last and 2016 arrives? Even with the US Federal Reserve universally expected to raise Dollar interest rates this Wednesday, a bigger number of speculators thought gold looked a 'buy' last week. The number of bulls in US gold futures and options jumped to exceed the number of bearish traders by the widest margin in a month. But overall, their net long betting (of bullish minus bearish contracts) remains near the lowest since end-2002...less than 30% of the last 20 years' average. Silver traders, in contrast, last week held a "net spec long" equal to 78% of the last 20 years' average. Investors in silver-backed ETF products piled in too, growing the number of shares issued by the giant SLV trust fund to its highest level since the start of September. That didn't stop the silver price sliding already today to new 6-year lows...down below $13.70 per ounce for the first time since August 2009. Where next for the more industrially useful 'monetary' metal? Update readers replying to our survey earlier this month remain bullish overall, as you will see on this chart. The largest single view sees silver rising by one-fifth...with a forecast of 10% gains in 2016 coming a very close second. But maybe experience has tempered the outlook...on average...compared to the end-2014 survey. Also note the contrast with July 2015's much more cautious view amongst Update readers. Perhaps that's because...down at these new 6-year lows...silver must surely turn tail and make some kind of recovery at last. US Fed interest-rate hikes notwithstanding, of course. Such as the rate hike the world's crashing equity, corporate debt and commodity markets now expect this coming Wednesday. Will the Fed blink again, like it has done all year? You wouldn't want to be short gold or silver derivatives if it does. Short term at least. Adrian Ash Head of Research, BullionVault Key data and market events, times in Greenwich Mean Time (CET-1, EST+5): • Friday China new bank lending rose in November; US retail sales (excluding autos) beat forecast; US consumer confidence rising in December... • Weekend UN climate summit in Paris agrees to limit global warming like that's all it takes; China's industrial output jumps ahead of forecast, retail sales rise... • Overnight Japan large manufacturers gloomy on outlook, service sector booming on 'bakugai' tourism; UK house sellers cut average asking prices 1.1% this month (Rightmove)... • 04.30 Japan industrial production fell 1.4% in October from year earlier, capacity utilization down... • 10.00 Eurozone industrial output jumped in October, up 1.9% per year... • 11.00 European Central Bank chief Draghi says no limit on QE or sub-zero rates, ready to go utterly mad in search for inflation... • Tonight Australia house prices, minutes from Reserve Bank's latest 'no change' meeting... • Tuesday UK consumer price inflation, plus producer price index; Germany economic sentiment; US consumer price inflation... • Wednesday Eurozone inflation, trade balance, and business activity surveys (Markit PMI); UK jobs + earnings data; US industrial output + house-building; US Federal Reserve interest-rate decision + press conference... • Thursday Japan rade balance; UK retail sales... • Friday Japan industrial output + central bank policy decision; Canada consumer-price inflation; US services sector activity (Markit PMI)...
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