Gold News

Dollar up, gold up in London trade

Dollar up, gold up? Any analyst worth a martini knows that gold is "negatively correlated" with the world's No.1 currency.

But gold defied theory all through 2005. And despite a stronger Dollar pushing back the Euro and Sterling so far today, gold rose in the first half of European trade.

It reached $614.50 before slipping back slightly ahead of the New York open.

"The market is looking pretty stable," says a precious metals analyst at Barclays Capital in London. "It's moving in a range."

Gold this week has traded between $605 and $615 per ounce, a 1.6% range. The Sterling range has been wider (1.9%) and the action more volatile following yesterday's shock rate-hike by the Bank of England.

French, German and Japanese gold investors have been whipped more violently still. Gold's range in Euros has been 2.2% this week. Yen buyers, as ever, have endured higher volatility with a 3.3% range.

"For the year, we would expect [gold] prices to benefit from a weakening of the Dollar going towards the second half," the Barclays analyst goes on. "The macro-economic environment looks positive for gold."

Structural changes in the gold market look favourable for early investors, too. Mining supply is tipped to stall this year, and central bank sales are also forecast to slow. Demand, however, may get a fillip from new gold-investment routes offered to Indian and European investors.

"Investment demand for gold will remain strong,” says James Burton, chief executive officer of the World Gold Council in London. That's why he wants to launch new exchange-traded gold funds (ETFs) to follow on the success of the Lxyor GBS in the UK and StreetTracks GLD in the US.

"Investors like to buy at home if they can," says Burton. "That's why we're planning to expand into continental Europe and the Far East."

The WGC may start selling gold-backed securities in Italy, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and India this year.

India is already on track to get its first gold ETF before March. But what will this new route to the gold market mean to the price?

India is the world's No.1 gold consumer by a long stretch. For a report on how its first gold ETF could change the nature of Indian gold demand, click here and read on...

Adrian Ash

Adrian Ash, BullionVault Gold News

Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the world-leading physical gold, silver and platinum market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and he has now been researching and writing daily analysis of precious metals and the wider financial markets for over 20 years. A frequent guest on BBC radio and television, Adrian is regularly quoted by the Financial Times, MarketWatch and many other respected news outlets, and his views from inside the bullion market have been sought by the Economist magazine, CNBC, Bloomberg, Germany's Handelsblatt and FAZ, plus Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore.

See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews.

Please Note: All articles published here are to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. Please review our Terms & Conditions for accessing Gold News.

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